Basketball: Breakers counting on big win

Eight could be the magic number for the Breakers as they try to sneak in to the playoffs via the back door as the ANBL regular season enters its final week.

That is the number of points the Breakers must beat Gold Coast by tomorrow night on the North Shore to earn the season split (or tiebreaker) against a Blaze club enduring some late season wobbles.

With last week's results having largely done little for the Breakers' prospects, catching the 15-11 Blaze and then ousting them in a tiebreaker now seems the New Zealand club's best hope of making the playoffs.

The Breakers enter the round in fifth place with a 13-13 record. A win tomorrow would pull them within a game of a Blaze club that has lost three of their last five to drop into a dogfight for the final playoff places.

Even if they beat the Blaze to level the season series at 2-2 and score the points required to claim the split on a countback, the Breakers are far from home.

They would still need to beat the Taipans in Cairns on Saturday night and hope the Blaze drop their final match against the Tigers in Melbourne on Saturday.

It's a fairly wishful scenario but, with Perth having secured their playoff spot with an overtime win against Melbourne and Wollongong and Townsville having also posted important wins last week, it is probably the best the Breakers can hope for.

Breakers shooting guard Kirk Penney said the players were weighing up all the likely scenarios..

"We could finish as high as second or as low as fifth.

"It is hard not to look at the scenarios but as it gets closer to game day our focus really has to shift to the Gold Coast game. Everything lies on that game for us."

Having thumped Cairns 89-76 on Saturday, Townsville can book their top-four spot with a home victory over last-placed Adelaide in the opening game of the round tonight. Should they fail to do that, they will have a second chance against Perth in the round's final match on Sunday.

A Townsville win in either of those matches would leave the Breakers with just two teams - Wollongong and Gold Coast in their sights.

The Breakers hammered Wollongong last Thursday to keep their season alive, but the Hawks rebounded to beat Gold Coast 100-88 on Saturday. That victory gave the Hawks the crucial season split over the Blaze.

With the Hawks having also taken the season series from the Breakers 3-1, they are in a strong position to emerge from any tiebreak situation.

To guarantee at least a tiebreak the Hawks must win at home to Melbourne on Friday or away to Adelaide on Saturday.

With the Hawks boasting a league-best 12-1 record at home, few would bet against them getting the win they need at the first attempt on Friday.

And if Townsville are already clear, that would leave the Breakers with just one route into the playoffs - over the top of Gold Coast. To be in with a chance of doing that they must win by eight points.