Head coach Ian Foster, left, and Sam Whitlock during New Zealand rugby squad training at Forsyth Barr Stadium in Dunedin, New Zealand. Photo / Getty Images.
Head coach Ian Foster, left, and Sam Whitlock during New Zealand rugby squad training at Forsyth Barr Stadium in Dunedin, New Zealand. Photo / Getty Images.
OPINION:
South Africans aren't silly enough to buy into the storyline of the All Blacks being in disarray and believe these next two tests are going to be a doddle.
But they are astute enough to sense that they have a rare opportunity to clinch two consecutive wins against theirold foe, with their confidence driven by the obvious vulnerability they can see in the All Blacks' front-row.
Prop has become the All Blacks number one problem position and not just because they have arrived in South Africa without senior tight-heads Nepo Laulala and Ofa Tuungafasi.
It was a problem position even when these two were available for the Irish series because across the three tests, New Zealand's front-rowers, with the exception of George Bower who is developing into a useful contributor and solid scrummager, lacked the muscle definition, explosive power, stamina, ball-carrying bite, distribution and decision-making skills of their opposites.
If there was a moment that illustrated how far behind New Zealand has fallen in developing technically proficient and hyper mobile front-row bruisers, it came late in the first half of the third test when Laulala unsuccessfully tried to off-load the ball in front of his own posts.
It was an ill-advised decision made worse by the poor execution and it told the story of the series – the All Blacks props mostly going clunk while the Irish went click.
And the air of confidence that is emanating from former South Africa players is based on their confidence that the All Blacks simply don't have the power athletes in their midst to cope with what will be coming their way from the Springboks.
The arrival of Jason Ryan as forwards coach will certainly help the All Blacks find a tightness and cohesion they didn't have against Ireland, but it's hard to believe that the new man will prove transformational in just the handful of sessions he's had so far with the players.
He's a smart coach, not a miracle worker and the TAB clearly agree with that assessment as, for the first time in 13 years, and just the fourth time in the history of New Zealand sports betting, the All Blacks are going into a test as the underdog.
Besides, Ryan is only able to work with the players who he's got and that's maybe the bigger problem with all this – the All Blacks haven't been bold enough in their front-row selections, either in who they have brought into the squad or who they have used on match day.
Head coach Ian Foster has become wedded to a group of long-serving props such as Laulala, Tuungafasi and Angus Ta'avao – none of whom have convinced as being the archetypal, modern prop.
All Blacks forwards coach Jason Ryan. Photo by Mark Mitchell.
Each of those three has undisputed qualities, but none possess everything that the prop of today needs and to dismiss the importance is to fail to understand that the best test teams play with 15 contributing athletes not 13 and two other blokes who can scrum.
The fact that Tryel Lomax was called up when Laulala was unable to travel to South Africa because of injury, felt like one more conservative selection as the Hurricanes tight-head is another whose been around the scene without looking the total part or capable of developing the missing pieces.
The All Blacks, it feels, have backed the wrong horses in the race to build World Cup-winning front-rowers and there needs to be a shift in selection - a move to back more youthful front-rowers such as Aidan Ross, Fletcher Newell, Ethan de Groot, Tamaiti Williams and Oli Jager.
Those five and Bower bring the wider, more dynamic skill-sets the All Blacks are missing. They also have all shown, at Super Rugby level at least, a capacity to scrummage well and an investment in this group feels more likely to pay dividend than continuing to persevere with the likes of Laulala, Tuungafasi, Ta'avao and Lomax – none of whom have indicated, after considerable opportunities to do so, that they can build themselves into the multi-purpose props of today.
But there's a reluctance to back youth when it comes to props.
There's a willingness to chuck untried wings into the test arena – as witnessed when Nehe Milner-Skudder in 2015 and George Bridge and Sevu Reece in 2019 were given All Blacks starting roles at the World Cup despite only having played a couple of tests.
There's been a reluctance to take the same risks with props, an overly fearful belief that the inexperienced will be crucified in the scrum.
It's probable that if Newell and de Groot, who are in South Africa, are picked to play against the Springboks that they will be under intense pressure at times.
But that's how they will learn, how they will develop the scrummaging skills they need to complement their ball-carrying, clean-out work and defence and how they will become superior players to the senior men who continue to keep them out of the team.
