Nathan Najib is not psychic and doesn't have a crystal ball – but the Christchurch real estate agent does possess an uncanny ability to predict future trends in the property market.
Over the last couple of years, Najib, founder of Najib Real Estate in central Christchurch, has correctly forecast events like the V-shaped recovery – a sharp upwards trend in house sales following the sharp decline – after the 2020 Covid lockdown.
He could see back then that following a relatively slow growth market for a couple of years, house sales would boom, and he was right.
In the middle of last year, he blogged about how the meteoric level of growth in the market and high median sale prices was not sustainable and the property bubble would burst. At the end of 2021, he predicted a market correction over the next 12 to 18 months. So far, he's been very much on track.
So how does he do it?
"I have 16 years of experience selling real estate and I study the market very closely," says Najib. "I understand the variables that determine the marketplace – things like supply of inventory and mortgage rate fluctuations – and I keep a close eye not only on the property market but on the economy in New Zealand and around the world.
"I consider all the factors that come into play and anticipate what is likely to happen. It has been fascinating to look back six months, a year or two years and see that, yes, I was spot on with what I saw coming."
He uses his analysis of the current situation and his predictions of what the future holds to offer advice to clients considering selling or buying homes. At the moment, his advice to anyone thinking about selling is, "Do it now."
"Some people are nervous about selling because prices have dropped since last year and they think maybe they should wait until spring. But I say to people in Christchurch, don't put it off. The market is still busy and houses are still selling, they are just taking a little longer.
"Yes, the market is about 5 per cent down on the end of last year – but it is still going down and prices are probably going to come down another 10-15 per cent. So it is better to sell now."
Factors affecting the market include interest rates going up and new finance restrictions coming into play, meaning people will find it harder to get home loans or to pay off large mortgages.
"The higher the interest rates, the slower the market, and that is what we are definitely seeing," Najib says. Plus many new residential developments that under way after the 2020 lockdown will be completed later this year – meaning there will be lots more homes available to buy, driving down prices.
Plenty of people are still keen to move to Christchurch from other parts of the country, due to its affordability and great lifestyle, he says. They are prepared pay top-end prices for homes in the city – but that will eventually tail off so there will be less demand for houses.
"Christchurch is very affordable for people from places like Wellington and Auckland, especially for the high-end properties. You can sell a house in Auckland for $4 million, buy something even nicer here for $2m, and have money in the bank. There are buyers from the north doing that because it is now easier to work remotely from anywhere in the country. But it won't stay like that forever."
Najib says one thing putting off some potential vendors from listing their homes now is the "mental block" many people have about selling in winter. That's thanks to a myth that in the colder months, homes aren't as appealing, and won't get such a good price.
In the past he has recommended to some vendors that they wait until spring, when their gardens are in full bloom and their homes don't feel cold, but that's not applicable now.
"Now I am telling people to get their house as warm as they can and their garden looking as good as they can, and put it on the market in winter – don't wait for the better weather. The way things are now, if you wait, you will get a lot less for it."
In fact he's advising people who want to sell now to hold off until later this year before they buy somewhere else, if they can. That may mean renting for six months or so, but makes financial sense.
"Later this year you will get more for the money that you got from selling your house now," he says. "It will be worth the wait."
For more information go to: www.najibrealestate.co.nz
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