Racehorses and racetracks can make you do ridiculous things.
Like you have a $1.50 favourite racing on its home track where it won by six length two weeks ago. It drops 4kg. A certainty, right?
Looks it - the TAB has Prom Queen at $1.50 for the $70,000 Tavistock Northland Breeders Stakes at Ruakaka tomorrow.
Would you pick one to beat her? No. But two, yes.
Okay, I will put my hand up for the free ride to the Funny Farm. Oh, that's right, we don't have them any more.
I'm prepared to take the stick for a moment of madness, but I've tipped stablemates Felton Road and Aim Smart to possibly give the local hero some hurry-up on the way to the prom.
Yes, it's nuts and I actually hope I'm wrong. I consider the filly's trainer Kenny Rae a mate. One of those rock solid guys who are the same staring at a shocking loss and being humble in the grip of Group 1 success. The sort that have admirably held this game together for generations.
But there is no quicker way to get patches in your jeans than betting from the base of emotion. Save that for Winx tomorrow.
Prom Queen has been fabulous winning six from seven - which is the last horse to do that - but Felton Road and Aim Smart are the best two she will have faced. On this occasion Felton Road should be the better of the pair if only because he has had a race this preparation and Aim High hasn't even had a trial.
Felton Road was superb winning first-up at Te Rapa.
He had to be taken back to last in a small field then things looked to be fine when Leith Innes waited for an inside run.
It came and just as Felton Road was about to take it the gap closed.
That bleeding of momentum would have beaten most horses, but when the gap finally arrived again, very late, Felton Road sprinted through with what seemed like almost disdain.
Aim Smart has had only two starts. His debut win, beating Summer Passage, at Counties was stunning, then things went amiss at his only other run.
Against Aim High is that at Counties it took most of the length of the home straight for Vinny Colgan to wind the then youngster up, even though he ran away late to score easily by three lengths.
The Ruakaka home straight is half the length of Counties, so he would need to be reasonably handy to the speed on the home bend.
The bad weather has prevented him having a trial, but trainer Tony Pike believes the colt to have been in work for sufficient time to be competitive.
Is this a one-horse race? Well, punters and the TAB think so, but it is certainly no more than a three-horse race. It's virtually impossible to find a winner outside this trio.
It shouldn't be difficult to find a local to shout a round if the filly wins. You have been warned.
Cambridge trainers Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman will have more than a weather eye on Jon Snow as he takes on the mighty Hartnell in the A$750,000 Makybe Diva Stakes at Flemington tomorrow, but they will give Francaletta more than a passing glance at Manawatu.
The potential Group 1 mare takes on the $70,000 Boehringer Ingelheim Metric Mile and the $2.10 the TAB had her at on the Final Field book yesterday looks good value.
The only other runner under $10 is Dolcetto, going for five straight, but he has to give Francaletta 3kg and that is a huge ask.
Francaletta won easily on the first day of the Hastings carnival and is sure to have improved. The 53kg looks luxurious.
Learning and getting there:
Oceedee, R1, Ruakaka. Second to the talented Felton Road at Te Rapa last time and due to break his maiden.
Classy: Hiflyer, R5, Ruakaka. Has a great record and should give a great sight here fresh.
Each way: Saracino, R4, Flemington. Was making good ground late over a much too short 1000m at Caulfield from his new Mike Moroney stable last time. Roomier track this time. Stablemate Savile Row may not be out of it either while fresh.