Jonno Ingerson: Market continues to cool

The latest round of Reserve Bank lending limits have knocked back the number of people able to get mortgages. Photo / 123RF

Another month has gone by and the property market has cooled further. We are well and truly into the depths of winter, but this is so much more than that.

The latest round of Reserve Bank lending limits, combined with the retail banks getting very choosy about who they lend to and how much they lend, have knocked back the number of people able to get mortgages.

On top of that sits affordability, or more correctly the lack of it. There is plenty of evidence for this slowdown.

First is our weekly measure of buyer demand which predicts how many sales will occur in subsequent weeks. That demand has been dropping rapidly since March.

Compared to the same time last year there are far fewer people actively looking in the market across the country.

Auckland's sales volumes are down 30 per cent year on year. Pretty much everywhere across the country is down, but the impact is definitely worst in the north of the North Island.

With dropping sales activity comes less upward price pressure. Auckland values stopped rising last July and have been slowly sliding downwards since.

It is the same in Christchurch. Hamilton values have now been flat since late last year, and the pace of increase almost everywhere else has slowed dramatically.

A more or less normal number of new listings coming onto the market combined with fewer sales means the total number of properties for sale in Auckland is a staggering 55 per cent higher than the same time last year.

More choice means less competition - and less frantic buyers

Unlike Auckland, total listings in Wellington and Dunedin continue to drop, and that is partly why those two cities are still increasing in value, albeit much slower than a year ago.

The outcome of the election will determine what change, if any, there will be to policies relating to migration, housing supply and property investment.

Meanwhile, the pace of building is far behind the demand, and dramatic change is needed to fix that.

This is my last column as I step into the unknown looking for something different to do. I have enjoyed sharing a little of my insight and passion for real estate with you, and hope it has helped keep you just that little bit more up with the play.

Make sure you stay curious and stay informed. Until another time...