KEY POINTS:
Property experts are at odds over the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand's latest home valuation figures.
The institute's monthly report for December strengthened suggestions the latest boom has peaked and allowed analysts to pinpoint the best and worst performing areas in 2007.
But Kieran Trass, who runs
the web-based suburbwatch service, said the institute's figures were misleading because they were based on monthly median sales prices and not long-term trends.
"It's okay at a national level, but once you break it down to suburb level there are not enough sales volumes to represent the true direction of values."
The institute recorded 92,101 house sales at a median value of $350,000 last year, a 6 per cent increase on 2006.
In the Auckland region there were 31,184 sales at an average $450,000, a 7 per cent rise.
Trass advised people not to make property decisions based on the institute's figures and said it was a risky time to buy anywhere.
"If I chucked a dart at a map of Auckland there would be a 50 per cent chance of losing money in a year's time."
Andrew King, of the Property Investors Federation, agreed the figures were shaky and advised buyers to research potential suburbs thoroughly.
But Stephen Hart, editor of Where to Live in Auckland, had more faith in the institute, particularly the 29 per cent value increase it recorded in the Ellerslie-Panmure area. "It's becoming gentrified, and is now a bonafide trendy area, certainly in the eyes of first-home buyers."
Institute president Murray Cleland dismissed criticisms of his organisation's findings.
"The Reserve Bank rings us regularly and sees our figures as a very, very good guide to what's happening in the market.
"Our figures are also used by valuers. They are current and give a true picture of what has happened in each month. They've stood the test of time for many years."
Cleland said there would always be different opinions on property trends and he encouraged debate. "If you go to a party or a barbecue, one subject always comes up. But that's good. There will be many debates to come in the next 12 months."
Gisborne continued its good run, with values rising 13 per cent last year - cementing a 4-year increase of 111 per cent.
Tauranga was tucked in behind at 12 per cent, followed by Palmerston North at 11 per cent.
Things weren't quite so buoyant in New Plymouth, where prices dipped 2 per cent, but all the other North Island provincial cities were up a little. Whangarei recorded an 8 per cent rise, Hamilton 7 per cent, Rotorua 6 per cent and Napier a 2 per cent rise.
Winners: The Real Estate Institute's best performing areas in Auckland and beyond with percentage value increase in 2007.
Auckland: 1, Ellerslie-Panmure 29 per cent; 2, Titirangi 21 per cent; 3, Upper Harbour 19 per cent.
North Island: 1, Gisborne 13 per cent; 2, Tauranga 12 per cent; 3, Palmerston North 11 per cent.
Losers: Worst performing areas in Auckland and beyond with percentage value increase in 2007.
Auckland: 1, Mt Eden-Epsom - 11 per cent; 2, Milford-Takapuna - 8 per cent; 3rd equal, City-Pt Chev and Devonport - 1 per cent.
North Island: 1st equal Central Wellington and Hutt Valley - 3 per cent; 2, New Plymouth - 2 per cent; 3, Mt Maunganui/Papamoa no change.
