Winston Peters has already signalled he wants to make all of the North an NZ First zone. Photo / Hagen Hopkins
It has been two years since NZ First leader Winston Peters took to the roads of Northland on a big blue bus with "Send them a message" written on it and won the long-standing National stronghold of Northland.
His pitch to the Northland voters was to give him a go - and if he failed to deliver, to vote him out at the general election. In September his day of reckoning will come.
Craig Johnston, the chairman of Business Paihia and owner of Paihia Dive, describes himself as a swing voter, but went for Peters because he thought National had become complacent.
Asked if he would vote for Peters again, he says he hasn't decided.
"In a byelection, people can protest vote," says Johnston. "So I think people will probably think about it a bit more and take it a bit more seriously in a general election."
Even National voters thought National deserved a drubbing. Federated Farmers Northland provincial president John Blackwell voted for National's Mark Osborne in the byelection but he can see why Peters won "and I'm not unhappy with his performance".
"I think Northland having been taken for granted by the National Party in a shockingly bad way, they didn't deserve to win the byelection."
The first rule of being an electorate MP is to be seen and both Blackwell and Johnston say they often see Peters about the traps.
Peters' Facebook page shows him popping up everywhere in the North - sampling mussel fritters at a bikies' gathering in Mangonui, opening a Whananaki playground, testing paella at the Kerikeri market, astride a rocking horse at Northland Field Days, at the Paparoa market, posing with horses at the Kaitaia show, and speaking at the Land Wars commemorations in Kaikohe.
Peters refused interviews for this piece, despite several requests.
His press releases show he has agitated on matters from the drought (he started barracking about it in December, Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy declared drought assistance in February) to rampaging youth in Northland. One of his campaigns is against proposed changes to the structure of electricity pricing which would see Northlanders stung more than other regions because of its distance.
Law and order is another issue Peters has grabbed with relish. After a group of youths went on the rampage in Kaikohe on St Pat's Day, Peters met with the local police and then with local Maori elders.
After a dairy owner in Northland was bashed with a tyre iron, Peters wrote on his Facebook page, "They should be doing hard labour, not the paltry nine months of home detention the 18-year-old assailant got."
National's big concern will be that Peters-mania will spread.
Peters has already signalled he is in a mood for empire building and wants to make the whole of the North a NZ First zone. Whangarei is next on his hit list - Shane Jones has been mentioned as a possible candidate.
It's a political landscape transformed since the sunny day Simon Bridges stood on a riverside in Northland and undertook one of the many sod turnings that are the lot of the transport minister.
In return, he got a pot of local honey from a very happy campaigner - Sue Reynold, who was one of the main campaigners in a battle for the realignment and improvements to the two bridges in Matakohe which has gone on for more than a decade.
National's byelection promise was to 'upgrade' 10 one-lane bridges to two-lane bridges. It was the promise that was the death knell for National, it was such blatant pork barrel politics.
Work has started on four of the 10 so far. Some will even have special "waterbomb platforms" for children to safely jump into the water below.
National's campaign chairman Steven Joyce denies that National's big mistake was taking the Northland seat for granted.
"But I can understand why people might think that. It had been a National seat for a long time and the opportunity that comes with the change has been a chance to redouble our focus on it, and I think people have seen that."
The byelection was the result of the resignation of former Northland MP, National's Mike Sabin, under somewhat mysterious circumstances which were never fully disclosed but were a hot topic on the Northland kumara vine.
Asked if he thinks National has any chance of winning the seat back, Joyce replies "absolutely" - but maybe not just yet.
National's Northland candidate is Matt King, a lanky beef farmer and ex-police officer from Okaihau.
He is amiable but is a rookie going up against a pro.
King says the general election will be "a different ball game" to the byelection - but he knows he has a job ahead of him to topple Peters.
"I do believe I can, but I'm going to have to put a lot of work in between now and the election to do that. Mainly because of face recognition - he's got it, I don't. I've got a big ground game to do. I'm under no illusions how hard that is going to be."
In the byelection, Labour had also put the brakes on its own candidate, Willow Jean Prime, to boost Peters' chances and reduce National's majority by one. That is less likely to happen in the general election.
But the impact of Labour's steer to voters to go for Peters was unclear - Peters won the vote by a significant margin even in National Party strongholds such as Kerikeri and Mangawhai.
John Blackwell says the big question for some is how Peters would use a kingmaker position: would it be Labour or National?
"I've talked to quite a few people about that and that has always been an issue for him and will be again by the looks of it. The general thought is that he wouldn't go with Labour. But that's an unknown and it is a concern."
Peters is already trying to head off any concerns.
He has also been peddling his message that the regions are neglected further afield though Joyce rejects this, saying Northland is not the only one to benefit from the Government's ministrations.
In the 1920s there was an infamous tour of Northland by 40 MPs, organised by the local MP to show Wellington how bad the roads were. In January there was a re-enactment by a classic cars group.
Peters was asked to speak, but was also asked not to make it political. You might as well have asked a fish not to swim.
Byelection pledges v performance
• Open four offices in the electorate.
Has opened three - in Kaitaia, Kerikeri and Dargaville. Plans for a Wellsford office fell through, partly due to limited parliamentary resources.
• SuperGold Card free ferry rides for the Russell to Paihia and Rawene ferries.
Not achieved. The Government has lifted the moratorium on new transport providers, but the decision is in the hands of the regional council.
• Move to Northland.
Mixed result. Peters splits his time between Parliament, his house in Whananaki and Auckland. Most Fridays, weekends and recess weeks are in Northland.
• Expand Northport at Marsden Point near Whangarei and a rail link to the port.
Not achieved but out of his control.
• Upgrade the rail services to and in Northland.
Not achieved - but also out of his control.
• Government bailout of Kaipara District Council over the $65 million debt for wastewater management scheme.
Not achieved.
'More like in the quantum of between $100 and $200 million,' says Willis.