Will the public get to decide on euthanasia? A poll of MPs

The Herald has polled MPs to see whether they will put the End of Life Choice Bill to a referendum. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Politicians supporting a bill legalising assisted dying may potentially stop it from going to a referendum, according to a Herald poll of MPs.

But plenty are staying tight-lipped in the lead-up to what may be a crucial vote on the controversial legislation.

When Act Leader David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill returns to Parliament this month, MPs will have to make a crucial vote about whether it should go to a referendum if it passes a third and final reading.

The bill would allow terminally ill adults with less than six months to live request assisted dying after getting clearance from two doctors.

The NZ First party has put forward an amendment that would mean the legislation would have to be put to the public in 2020 before becoming law. Its MPs will vote against the bill if they don't get a plebiscite.

The Herald has asked all 120 MPs whether they would back the bill going to a referendum and here's what we learned:

The bill's supporters could keep a referendum off the table

The legislation passed its second reading - in June - 70 votes to 50.

But among those who voted "yes", support is much thinner for it to go a referendum.

So far, 104 MPs have indicated which way they're leaning or if they aren't saying, while 16 have not replied to requests for comment.

In total, 48 of all MPs in the House say they will vote for a referendum or are leaning towards it, while 32 are against.

So 13 of the 40 MPs who haven't indicated a position would have to vote for a referendum for it to happen (it needs 61 votes total to go through).

At least eight MPs who voted for the bill at second reading say they're likely to vote against the referendum.

They're largely Labour Party members - including Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern - and several have expressed concerns about what they said would be an abdication of power by MPs by putting the question back to the public.

That means there's at most 62 votes for the referendum among those who want the changes and, with 18 still undeclared or undecided, it could slip below the 61 votes needed to go through.

Forty-four of the second-reading "yes" voters are leaning towards the referendum, but many say it is only to ensure the bill passes its third reading by getting NZ First support.

Opponents of the bill could save the referendum but may not want to

Of the 50 MPs who voted against the End of Life Choice Bill at second reading, 24 have said they are leaning against a referendum.

But four have indicated they are considering voting yes on the plebiscite, although mostly tentatively.

Among them is Labour's Deborah Russell, who said while she would vote against the bill at third reading either way, it was a close decision and she felt more comfortable with putting the issue to a referendum.

Sentiment against many of those strongly opposed to the bill is against the referendum and several staunch critics say the matter is too complex and significant to leave as a yes-and-no question for the public.

But there are two other reasons those wanting to stop the legislation may vote against a referendum.

The public would likely say yes

Critics of the End of Life Choice Bill have pointed to the overwhelmingly negative 39,000 submissions made about the changes during the Select Committee stage.

But if the history of polling on the issue is anything to go by, the public would give likely the bill its backing in a referendum, according to Victoria University research fellow Jessica Young, an expert on polls on assisted dying.

"Every poll of the last 20 years suggests that there is a majority support for some form of legislation," she said.

Surveys over the period have averaged out to 68 per cent support, with opposition at 14.9 per cent and about 15 per cent unsure.

"But it might not be as much of a majority we've seen in the polls," Young said.

The NZ First amendment calling for the referendum only asks whether voters support the End of Life Choice Bill – rather than assisted dying itself – and the effect that could have was not clear.

The other issue that could sway the result was another referendum already happening as part of the 2020 election: on whether to legalise recreational cannabis, Young said.

That could either turn voters off because it could be too much change at once, but could also improve the turnout of more liberal voters.

Act Party leader David Seymour has been trying to garner support for a referendum in recent weeks. Photo / Paul Taylor

The bill chances at third reading are thin without the referendum

NZ First says the decision is too significant to be left to 120 temporarily-empowered MPs and its members will vote no on the End of Life Choice bill at its third reading.

Without the party's nine votes, Seymour would have to retain every other "yes" from the second reading to get the bill into law.

That's a major ask, given a number of MPs publicly expressed reservations even while backing the bill at the second reading.

Seymour has made a series of changes to the bill since the second vote in a hope of securing further votes, but it's not yet clear whether it's made any significant change to the overall numbers.

Many MPs are taking a wait-and-see approach until after the referendum decision is made.

That threat has seen Seymour campaigning in recent months to get backing for a plebiscite. But it could also be a strong incentive for critics to vote against the issue going to the public.

The End of Life Choice Bill returns for debate in Parliament on October 23.