Will 2023 be the last? The Government’s statistician talks about the future of the census

Stats NZ is already planning for the 2028 Census, even as the final forms of the 2023 Census are processed. The plans could include a complete overhaul of the way the national survey is conducted. The health and safety of census collectors, the rise of alternative datasets, the increasing cost of getting responses from New Zealanders and the agency’s social license all raise questions about the current census model.

New Zealand Herald head of newsroom data Chris Knox sat down with Government statistician and chief executive of Stats NZ and discussed where this year’s census was at and what the future might hold.

Mark Sowden says he’s happy with the 2023 Census but the Stats NZ boss acknowledges getting every New Zealander to complete a form is becoming increasingly difficult and expensive.

“We want to start by thanking all the 4.5 million New Zealanders that filled in the forms because that’s what’s made it possible. We’ve got to a point where we can deliver high quality data about the overall New Zealand population and for Māori and Pacific subgroups so that’s a really good outcome.

“We’ve clocked about 10,000 what we call ‘hard refusals’ and around about a third of those are relating to what we call anti-government sentiment.”

Stats NZ received about two million individual forms by or on Census night, March 7. New Zealanders submitted a further 2.5 million between Census night and the start of July. The latest estimated response rate is between 89 and 91 per cent, essentially reaching the agency’s 90 per cent target.

In 2023, far more resources were devoted to encouraging New Zealanders complete the form than the “unacceptable” 2018 Census. Significant efforts continued well after Census night.

One million dollars, 0.3 per cent of total funding, was used in an incentive “experiment”, including offering Warriors tickets and food vouchers. When asked if incentives could send the wrong message, Sowden said “it wasn’t an easy decision for us.

“I understand why people might feel that way. I hope it doesn’t stop them filling in censuses in the future.

“Sometimes you’ve got to meet New Zealanders where they are. The group of people that we offered incentives to were people who, when (you looked) at the return rate, they were quite underrepresented.”

Sowden said the main group the agency had trouble connecting with was low-income households.

Government Statistician and chief executive of Stats NZ Mark Sowden. Photo / Supplied

“Whilst it manifests itself in terms of things like the Māori and Pacific response rates, it’s actually an income correlation.

“The people in those income brackets, they live difficult, challenging lives, they’re busy, often they’ll work two or three jobs and they haven’t always had a great experience with governments over their their lives.”

Census collectors made 2.5 million visits to New Zealand household, including 1.96m after March 7.

“We did something like 950,000 hours worth of field collection effort post census day and that’s where a lot of the new money went to.”

But, Sowden felt the weight of putting people “in harm’s way”. Census collectors suffered six serious dog bites, faced one firearm incident, one bio-hazard incident, one serious threat and one assault.

Sowden wants Stats NZ to review their whole suite of data collections and publications, and said they needed to decide the future of the census by the middle of next year.

”It’s getting harder to get responses from New Zealanders, certainly getting more expensive to get responses from New Zealanders, and yet there’s an increase in demand for faster, more granular data.”

Sowden noted similar jurisdictions, like Australia and the UK, were moving away from a traditional census, relying on the growing sets of administrative data collected by governments.

“Some of the answer might be that you just have a smaller form but you still go to every household or the answer might be that you actually don’t go to every household and maybe you don’t even have a thing called a census.”

Julia Gabel is an Auckland-based reporter with a focus on data journalism. She joined the Herald in 2020.