KEY POINTS:
Winter seems to be hiding from us this year, although I'm the first to admit that I've been burning my firewood despite living in Auckland where it's been up to 19 degrees lately!
I did some research on how the warmer you are the healthier you will likely
be in winter, so I'm doing my own experiment, and so far so good. But really, where is Winter? We've had a couple of snow storms in the South and a few hefty frosts, but really much of New Zealand, especially the North Island, has been bathing in relative warmth.
Over the weekend a low in the Tasman pulled down some tropical nor'west winds. Temperatures from Marlborough, Napier and Gisborne to Tauranga, Auckland and Northland reached around 20 degrees with overnight lows barely dipping below 15 for some. Hardly winter.
When I was down in Christchurch a few weeks ago the grass was lush and trees still had leaves on them. Over on the Coromandel for Queen's Birthday and there were people in the sea! Up in Auckland, where I'm based, the weekends are full of people wearing shorts and t-shirts despite being just a few days away from the Shortest Day of the year.
To give you some contrast, I was in Canada a couple of years ago for their shortest day of the year. It was minus 20 degrees. Not a fair comparison I admit, but it highlights that fact that our winter is very mild so far this year, unless you live in Southland where it's hardly been over 10 degrees.
So why is Winter proving to be so warm? Well there are a couple of factors in my opinion. Firstly the La Nina easterlies are certainly keeping the North Island mild. We have an entire week ahead of us with winds from the east. The second factor - and this is the main one - is the very high air pressure over the country. Think of a large high as a fully inflated tyre - and your fist as a low. It's hard work making a dent in a fully inflated tyre.
These big highs have been holding firm over New Zealand while lows press against them from the north, west - and of course, the wintry south. The big roaring southerlies that blast from Antarctica all the way to Auckland are so far mostly hitting Southland only. A few have made it beyond - reaching Central Plateau and dumping snow on the Desert Road, but the big pools of cold air are yet to come.
It's the shortest day of the year this Saturday, and usually that marks the official start to our coldest weather. Next week I'm seeing plenty of rain and snow in the South Island alpine regions, but again there's a big question mark over how far north that cold will spread. So here's to white wines on the deck and wearing shorts in the weekend, for another few days yet at least!
FEEDBACK TO READERS
I've been reading your comments on previous stories written by me so please let me clarify a couple of points.
To John Anderson of Christchurch who responded to my Fine Art of Weather Forecasting blog. Yes, I admit it was professional courtesy. As I pointed out in my story, I've heard that Ken is accurate but have not done any research on it. I am very honest about what I know - and I'll give you my true thoughts on MetService and weather presenters. But I don't know Ken's forecasting ability at this point in time, but your comments and the others on that story are much appreciated.
Also, to RW of Kelburn on my story about SAD. Yes, fair point - New Zealand really doesn't get SAD however to some point we must get a degree of this disorder. I'm sure there isn't a line drawn around the globe where those north or south of it do or do not get symptoms. Some people may well be significantly impacted by the fact that it's dark when they head to work and dark when they head home - highly likely in the South Island in areas such as Southland - but even in Auckland where rush hour traffic means some office workers don't see the sun at all. But I do take your point - after living in London for 6 months I'm well aware just how lucky we are here in New Zealand with our stunning climate that is, more often than not, sunny!