US President Donald Trump announces his plans for the 'Golden Dome', a national ballistic and cruise missile defence system. Photo / Getty Images
By Phil Pennington of RNZ
A blueprint for US President Donald Trump’s Golden Dome missile defence system has been created – but remains under wraps.
Trump’s orders to build the system – a huge network of satellites, sensors and shooters – come with a $300 billion budget, with plans to have America’s allies and partners co-operate with its construction, and benefit from its operation.
While New Zealand has a burgeoning space industry, the Government is showing no interest so far, despite telling the US in April it is open for business for “all things space”.
But the US-NZ company Rocket Lab is already building satellites linked to the Golden Dome, and is keen to do more.
The company declined RNZ’s request for an interview.
But founder and chief executive Sir Peter Beck told investors on an earnings call last month: “Our pursuit of the Golden Dome extends just beyond payloads. Across its entire ecosystem, we have the technology and capability ready to serve.”
The company had “exactly what the US administration is seeking with Golden Dome”, with its agility, innovation and integration getting things done on time, he told the earnings call.
There was “pent-up demand” for its new larger Neutron rocket to come to market, from programmes like the dome.
“The $[US]175,000,000,000 Golden Dome programme could prove to be one of DOD’s [Defence Department’s] largest procurements to date, and we’re in a great position to capitalise on opportunities here.”
Many sceptics at think tanks have concerns about the technical feasibility. Arms control critics have warned that the Golden Dome will spark an arms race with China and Russia, and could be a money pit that ends in failure.
But Peter Jennings of Strategic Analysis Australia took another tack: “Go for broke,” he told RNZ.
Golden Dome dollars could subsidise the costly development of New Zealand’s space industry, he said.
“And if you can get some security benefit and alliance benefit with the United States out of it, well, that’s also good.”
But the independent Arms Control Association in Washington, DC, said the dome could only be destabilising.
“It would be shocking if China did not respond by building more medium or long-range ballistic missiles in order to overwhelm a limited missile defence system,” said executive director Daryl Kimball.
“Does New Zealand, which has been a stalwart champion for conflict resolution, for reducing and eliminating nuclear threats, want to facilitate a Donald Trump effort to protect America against Russian and Chinese missiles, a move that will be costly for the US and stimulate a global arms race?”
An executive order to build an “Iron Dome” was one of the first Trump signed when his second term started in January.
Nicknamed after a short-range missile defence system Israel has been deploying with great effect against Hamas and Iran in the Gaza war, it was later renamed the Golden Dome. Technologically, it is the Iron Dome on steroids.
The aim is for it to be able to shoot down all sorts of missiles, even launched from the other side of the world, or from ships, using ground or space-based interceptors.
“The threat of attack by ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missiles, and other advanced aerial attacks, remains the most catastrophic threat facing the United States,” Trump said in his order.
But while the blueprint for the system, created by General Michael Guetlein, was meant to be accompanied by a big reveal, this has not happened.
“It is currently undergoing review and no additional information is available at this time, keeping operational security top of mind,” the Pentagon said. It provided no details about costs, reported Bloomberg.
The first satellites for the dome are already being launched in the US. More than 40 of them went up in recent weeks or are about to be launched.
The Golden Dome Act orders this to be accelerated. Rocket Lab has been building 18 of these satellites under an $800m+ Pentagon contract.
America’s spaceports are getting congested just when the missile shield project might need many, many more launches. The Wall Street Journal called it a “traffic jam”.
The Pentagon has been looking for more launch options, including in the Southern Hemisphere.
Jennings saw a fit for both New Zealand and for Rocket Lab.
“The country is in a position to significantly grow space co-operation with the United States. Now, some of that could be related to Golden Dome,” he said.
“I think there’s a tremendous opportunity for New Zealand here. So, you know, why not take it up?”
Rocket Lab’s launchpad at Mahia gave the country a big edge over Australia’s more limited offerings, he said.
“It’s not for me to tell the company how to run its business, but I think there are opportunities there and this is something that could be sold to New Zealanders as exciting and economically and scientifically and strategically good for the country.
“So why not tell that story?”
The Government sets the rules for what goes up on space launches, vetting each application on a case-by-case basis.
Space, Defence and Spy Minister Judith Collins has an ambitious space agenda and wants American investment.
She told a space symposium of 10,000 people held near the US Space Force’s Colorado headquarters in April that “New Zealand is open for business”.
“We offer a global launchpad for all things space, and we’re keen to continue building collaborative relationships at both government and commercial levels.”
But asked if she was considering ways the country could be involved in the Golden Dome, Collins made no comment and instead referred RNZ to the NZ Defence Force (NZDF).
“The New Zealand Defence Force is not involved in the Golden Dome system and has no plans to be,” the NZDF said.
The NZ Space Agency echoed that: “We have not done any work on such a system, nor do we intend to,” it said.
Daryl Kimball from the Arms Control Association was adamant things should stay that way.
“No country should be helping to build this system,” he said.
“Simply by announcing this, Trump has put Russia and China on guard. They want to maintain their potential to retaliate against a US attack with their own missile attack.”
The Golden Dome was technically not feasible, he asserted – but still dangerous for anyone involved.
“If New Zealand is an essential element in China’s mind of the missile defence system or the offensive nuclear capabilities that could strike China, New Zealand does become a target in such a conflict,” Kimball warned.
Jennings said he did not see a nuclear dimension to the dome that might complicate it for nuclear-free New Zealand. The system might be able to take out nuclear missiles, but essentially it was about American forces being able to communicate effectively among themselves and with allies, he said.
“At the end of the day, that’s as much in New Zealand’s interests as it is in Australia’s.”
But Australia’s Government was also being too coy about it, struggling how to frame the threat from China and how to respond to it.
“Let’s be clear about this: The technology for civilian or military use of space is the same,” Jennings said.
“I would encourage people to be at least intellectually honest with themselves about what’s going on here and not pretend that it’s possible to somehow separate the military away from the civilian activities of space and say, ‘Well, we’re only going to do the good stuff’.
“It’s all a bit mixed and mingled, and I don’t think one should be particularly shy about that.”
Mark Rocket of industry group Aerospace New Zealand, who also runs Kea Aerospace, skirted the subject of the Golden Dome with RNZ, but wanted a debate on the subject.
“Certainly, some people may be for it, some people might be against it,” said Rocket, a seed investor and co-director in Rocket Lab up to 2011.
“It really just comes down to people’s different perspectives and the type of work that each company does in New Zealand.”
But “the world is changing”.
“I really think we need to have a robust discussion from the government to industry to academics to make sure that we’re all aligned in the direction that we’re going in.”
From what he could see, the NZ Space Agency and Government were approaching things “in a way that’s aligned with New Zealand’s values”.
Trump has pledged to have the first parts of his grand project working by his final year in power.
Lockheed Martin called the dome a “revolutionary concept to further the goals of ‘peace through strength’”.
“Peace through strength” is a favourite Trump slogan.