However, it was hard to forecast with certainty five days out, Mr Duncan said.
"The rain may well hold off until New Year's Day."
In Wellington, New Year's Eve would be windy with north to north-west winds potentially rising to gale-force with rain, he said.
Rain and showers would affect the West Coast, but dry spells may move in further south during the day as the front headed into the lower North Island.
In Canterbury and Christchurch the bulk of the rain would be falling on the West Coast - but there may be some spillover with patchy rain for a time as the main front moved north, Mr Duncan said.
"Basically on New Year's Eve, a large high - the one over us now - moves away finally and a cold front moves up the country with rain and wind then showers.
"This front will slow down as it runs into higher pressure over northern and north eastern NZ."
Early data suggested the Chatham Islands would be the place to be on New Year's Eve, Mr Duncan said.
Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Bay of Plenty, Northland were also forecast to be dry and warm places to be over the break.