Mostly dry weather conditions are setting back in around NZ but there are a few rain makers in the wings. The first one is a low north of Cape Reinga. The second will come next week from the Tasman Sea while the third low may move in across the entire country for the first few days of December. Only early days – but the models seem fairly confident at this stage. Next update on Friday!
Aucklanders could be fooled into thinking it's warmer than usual, but a weather analyst says the city is in the grip of textbook spring conditions with little wind.
Auckland, Waikato and the Bay of Plenty all had highs in the low 20s yesterday but the lack of a southwesterly windmeant it probably felt warmer for many, said WeatherWatch head analyst Philip Duncan.
"With the light winds it's making the days feel warm, so in places like Waikato and Auckland it feels ... hotter than it probably is ... probably by a few degrees," he said. "We've been around the low 20s which is quite normal, the difference is if we have a southwest change it will feel cooler but the air temperature might only be a couple of degrees different."
He said much of the country was enjoying normal spring conditions - bar scattered areas in the Far North where nervous farmers say the weather has been drier than last year.
The country was in a drying trend and conditions would gradually get warmer with the official start of summer on December 1, Mr Duncan said.
"Generally speaking all the regions are where they should be for this time of year, in fact this entire spring has been textbook from start to finish."
He said a low at the end of this month in the Tasman Sea could bring rain to the Far North.
MetService meteorologist Daniel Corbett said a high would build to the east of the South Island bringing mostly dry conditions in the far south of the island.
This high would put most of the country in a mild northerly flow as it gradually slid further east of the country mid-week. This would help temperatures to climb into the 20s in most areas, Mr Corbett said.
A Niwa seasonal forecast from this month to January predicts temperatures near or above average in all regions except for the North Island's west and the South Island's east.
It also predicts normal rainfall in all regions except for the north and east of the North Island. Soil moisture and river flows are tipped to be below normal in the North Island's north but above normal in its east.
Forecast for the North Island to Friday:
Moderate chance of showers but generally dry in most places. Temperatures to reach the low 20s. - WeatherWatch head analyst Philip Duncan
A high will build to the east of the South Island bringing mostly dry conditions in the far south of the island. This high will put most of the country in a mild northerly flow as it gradually slides further east of the country during mid-week. This will help temperatures to climb into the 20s in most areas. - MetService
