Wellington's $6.4b transport plan on shaky ground

The win by Andy Foster puts a massive question mark over the Let's Get Wellington Moving package Justin Lester played a key role in negotiating for the city. Photo / Mark Mitchell

ANALYSIS

Wellington's $6.4b transport future is on shaky ground following a cliffhanger election result for the city's top job.

Andy Foster, whose campaign is supported by film-maker Sir Peter Jackson, has narrowly secured the mayoralty over Labour incumbent Justin Lester.

The win puts a massive question mark over the Let's Get Wellington Moving package Lester played a key role in negotiating for the city.

On the campaign trail Foster promised that if he was elected, he would call on the region's mayors and other key players like the Wellington Chamber of Commerce to join him in demanding LGWM be re-sequenced.

Transport Minister Phil Twyford has been crystal clear he expects mass rapid transit to be delivered first, ahead of roading projects like a second Mt Victoria tunnel.

Foster on the other hand doesn't even think the business case for mass rapid transit will stack up and wants the second tunnel to be prioritised.

While Foster is an independent, it was only 2017 when he stood for the New Zealand First Party in the general election to contest the Wellington Central seat.

He won't find a friend for his second tunnel cause in Twyford or Associate Transport Minister Julie Anne Genter.

But Foster will likely pursue New Zealand First as an avenue to get a foot in the door.

Lester's toppling is a loss for LGWM in terms of getting it across the line as it stands.

Twyford no longer has a Labour ticket mayor to toe the party line when required.

Over at Greater Wellington Regional Council Daran Ponter is tipped to become chairman.

While he may be on the Labour ticket, make no mistake, he's not exactly a duck neatly lined up in a row for the party.

Ponter has been much more vocal than Lester, for example, calling for Genter to release her secret letter.

"Because the things that have arrived on Wellingtonians' plate in relation to Let's Get Welly Moving are certainly not the things that they identified as projects they wanted when it went into the parliamentary process", he told the Herald at the time.

Ponter has also urged politicians to stay open minded and accept business cases may come to different conclusions than initial aspirations for the project's sequencing.

This growing narrative of uncertainty is not just brewing politically with the change in power this election.

Treasury has been scathing over the timing of the project's announcement and its lack of detail.

Furthermore, an email leading up to the finalisation of the Cabinet paper for LGWM shows Treasury asked why a second Mt Victoria tunnel had been put on the back burner.

"Why is the Minister [Phil Twyford] proposing to build the second Mt Vic tunnel after rapid transit has been delivered? There is no explanation for this sequencing", the April 18, 2019 email said.

Meanwhile NZTA officials say if the business cases for LGWM don't stack up, then they will not proceed with the programme and it will have to be "rejigged".

Foster also has the Wellington Chamber of Commerce on his side, whose chief executive John Milford has slammed the transport plan for leaving a second Terrace Tunnel and trenching Karo Drive out in the cold.

There's no question this bubbling concoction of uncertainty that Lester's tried to keep a lid on will be brought to boiling point under Foster's reign.