Weather Watch: Rain expected for North Island

Rain will develop later on Friday and push into northern and north eastern parts of the North Island across the weekend and in to Monday. Photo / Paul Estcourt

The weekend is again upon us and the forecast is quite different from north to south.

In the wake of ex-cyclone's Vania and Zelia lies a belt of very unstable, humid, air - and we're going to see plenty of activity in the coming days just to the north east of the North Island. Rain will develop later on Friday and push into northern and north eastern parts of the North Island across the weekend and in to Monday. East Cape will receive the heaviest rain I believe, with Bay of Plenty also getting a good soaking.

Speaking of the tropics, I've fielded a lot of questions from people wanting to know why our cyclone season this year has kicked off with storms starting at the end of the alphabet. This article I wrote explains why the naming of cyclones in our part of the world can be a little confusing - and I point out the differences between how tropical storms are named here compared to America.

For Auckland and Hamilton this weekend the area of rain to the north east will likely be just a little too far east to bring any real rain in - especially Hamilton. But Auckland may see some wet weather across the weekend - but it will literally be right on the edge of it, so it very much is one of those 50/50 forecasts in which the slightest movement to the east or west will make the difference between a wet weekend or a fairly dry one. Current indications show most of the city will receive rain or showers at some point.

As we head further south the skies dry out but it will remain cloudy in the east - but the closer you are to the Tasman Sea then the sunnier it should get.

Central New Zealand will be celebrating Wellington anniversary weekend this weekend and the forecast for the area doesn't look especially flash to begin with. Mostly cloudy, humid and windy conditions look set to kick off the long weekend.

That low, with sub-tropical connections, will drift down the east coast of the North Island over Saturday and Sunday and push up against a strong high in the Southern Ocean.

The resulting squash zone of air pressure will drive in strong east to south east winds across the lower North Island and upper South Island. Highs will be down several degrees on this week, reaching around 18 on Saturday and climbing into the low 20s for Sunday and Monday. Despite the high humidity making a return the lower air temperatures mean it won't be as noticeable.

On Monday sunnier skies should move in with winds easing and highs climbing into the low to mid 20s across the lower North Island and mid to late 20s elsewhere in the holiday region.

There's also a chance of drizzle across Saturday and Sunday.

In the South Island the east coast will see a bit of cloud and cooler easterlies, but overall much of the South Island - especially Southland, Central Otago and the West Coast will enjoy sunny, hot, calm weather.