Weather watch: Loving this time of year

From droughts to floods in the blink of aneye. This really is a monster. The low that brought flooding from Bay of Plenty to Otago is one of the most impressive lows I've seen in New Zealand for quite some time.

The low was actually two lows merged together...one spiralling north east towards Waikato, the other moving in the exact oppositioin direction in harmony, towards the Canterbury and Otago coastlines.

Last night the low heading towards the North Island produced one of the most spectacular looking rain radars I've ever seen in New Zealand - a clear centre and angry spirals of heavy rain spiralling around it. You can view it here.

These two lows spawned localised weather events that were dramatic and damaging for some but at the same time regions nearby were left mostly untouched.

It goes to show that even when a giant low descends on New Zealand it is still hard to predict which region will get what. The geography of our country makes all storm forecasting a real challenge.

But at this big low shows signs of finally moving away from the country all eyes shift back to the Tasman Sea for the next sub-tropical low.

Looking at the long range weather maps I can't help but get the feeling that I'm standing at an airport watching planes line up to land. This next low will move into Northland and Auckland late on Thursday and through Friday then move south. It is possible that it will bring more heavy rain to regions hit by torrential rain this week. It's one to watch very closely.

As this next low - low number 4 now - finally leaves New Zealand around Sunday our eyes again shift back to the Tasman Sea where yet another low is predicted to form, again off the Queensland coast and again aiming directly at our country around Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

This weather pattern is a serious change and something we should be concerned about. While droughts are terrible for the economy and a big stress to farmers, flooding is far more costly and can impact urbanites just as heavily, if not more so.

This rainy weather pattern shows no sign of changing... and one thing that has become increasingly clear about our weather patterns this year is that they seem to hang around for a long time before changing. I love a good storm, but I don't want to see flood waters running through peoples homes.

I don't know what our winter is going to be like... but I do know it's going to start off wet. At the moment it's still fairly mild (not warm though!) and this points towards La Nina weather patterns - wetter and warmer in the north. In the south it's quite different now... today's big low is going to bring snow to lower levels. One thing about the increased moisture coming down from the north is that if it hits cold air it can create big snow falls. So our late ski season may not be doomed if we can get some colder air in to the mix too.

Speaking of colder air, you have to remember that big lows like this always have nasty tail...and this one is no different, producing a southerly that will spread north today. The next low will do the same thing and someone in Wellington was asking me about how Sunday looked and my answer was simply "Cold". A high of 11. In fact, Saturday may be even colder...some areas may not see double digits.

Ahhh ya gotta love this time of year.