Niwa Weather says some parts of Aotearoa could see temperatures of up to 30C later this week – mostly around the eastern regions of both islands.
MetService meteorologist Mmathapelo Makgabutlane said places like Gore and Invercargill could see temperatures peaking in the mid to late 20s – which is rare for this time of year.
“For Gore, that’s about 10 degrees warmer than it usually would be this time of year.”
Makgabutlane wasn’t so sure about the 30C prediction though, saying instead she thought the temperature would likely peak in the mid 20s – and that it would not be sticking around for the weekend.
“This time of year, things change very quickly and we’ve actually got quite a sharp change by the end of the working week for the South Island.”
On Friday, temperatures are likely to drop back into the low teens – perhaps even single digits for Southland.
Otago has a high of 11C on Friday – a stark change from the balmy midweek temperatures of 24C.
Farther north, the warmth will stick around a bit longer but will be more of the usual temperatures for this time of year and the wind will stay too.
“On Wednesday, we see those winds picking up to quite strong once again. We definitely advise people to keep an eye on the Metservice website for any possible watches, the warnings around those strong winds midweek.”
Niwa Weather said gusts will likely be between 70km/h and 100km/h across much of the South Island and the lower North Island.
The shift in weather comes as the first El Nino in eight years moves in, bringing long periods of summer heat and dryness fanned by persistent westerly flows.
“Using the data from August, this El Nino is in with the five strongest that have occurred in the last eight decades,” Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said.
“This could dramatically reduce the chance of seeing those tropical moisture plumes as we look ahead - so it’s kind of a double-whammy of climate drivers that are going to be coming on quite strongly,” Noll said.
