KEY POINTS:
Ahhh Christmas is getting closer and the weather seems to be getting worse (as far as being outdoors is considered). On Monday the Weather Watch Centre launched it's first official Christmas Day forecast.
We're updating it
each evening at around 7pm and the closer we get to Christmas the more we'll update it. (Please also note that our forecasts are totally independent of MetService).
Obviously we still have another week to go so the forecast will change slightly as we get closer to Christmas Day... but one thing is for sure - we're in an unsettled period.
When people ask me what the weather will be like on Christmas Day, I say "unsettled". The usual answer to that answer is "Sounds like politician talk to me!". Well it might look like I'm hedging my bets but to be completely open with you - it really is unsettled!
If it was settled - with one big high over us that wasn't moving - then I would say it would be calm and sunny next week. From that I could draw forecasts such as, "Hot and sunny and dry in Taupo and Queenstown". I could say "A warm northerly and clear skies in Wellington" and perhaps "Some cloudy periods around Auckland". These are all forecasts I could be relatively sure of if we had a "settled " weather pattern, but that isn't the case this year (at least not the long range case).
So, what can I be sure of? Well I can be sure of changeable weather - so if you were wanting several days with a big large high over us I'd say you're probably not in luck. The Tasman Sea is very active with low pressure systems at the moment and the westerlies have fired up again for one last burst before they are likely to die down for January.
At the moment we're seeing around 2 or 3 settled days followed by 2 or 3 unsettled days. The trick is to get one of those short settled periods at the end of next week, and at this stage that is actually looking likely.
My generic forecast for all of New Zealand is for partly sunny/cloudy conditions around the coastlines and sunny inland. There may be a drizzle patch in some northern or north eastern areas but I'm not expecting it to be anything to worry about. I also think its going to be warm everywhere. Maybe not a scorcher, but definitely not a late wintry outbreak! In a nutshell, it's not looking too bad at all.
This unsettled period is likely to last right through into January I think, then we might see a return to drier, sunnier, weather.
As for New Years Eve? Still too far out, but with similar patterns I'd be prepared for an indoors New Years Eve, just to be safe! In 7 days I'll be able to be clearer on New Years Eve.
Philip Duncan
Pictured above: 2-year-old Sophie Ford contemplates which Christmas tree would be the best to take home at Mount Gabriel Christmas Trees in Tamahere. Photo / Sarah Ivey
For the latest weather news keep up to date with The Radio Network's new Weather Watch Centre or the NZ Herald weather section.