This week’s former tropical cyclone that has brought misery to Coromandel Peninsula just days after an earlier storm saw roads awash and holidays ruined is set to become a “one-in-20-year event”.
Thames Coromandel District Council said fresh off a briefing with MetService and Waikato Regional Council, its emergency management team had been advised that 400mm of rain was now forecast to fall for the event through to 10pm, meaning ex-Cyclone Hale would likely be a one-in-20-year storm event.
”While the cyclone is set to begin easing off tonight and through tomorrow, our catchments are struggling to cope so expect widespread surface flooding, slips, storm surge, and road closures to continue,” said the council this afternoon.
There are reports of power outages in Kōpū, Ōpoutere, Whenuakite, Hot Water Beach, Whitianga and Waiau.
More than 500 households in total are affected. Powerco were working to restore connections.
”We have another six to eight hours of this cyclone at its current intensity, so the message to everyone is stay off the roads and beaches for your own safety – it’s dangerous,” said Civil Defence Controller Garry Towler.
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Auckland’s north and Northland have been hit by nearly a month’s worth of rain in the past 24 hours as ex-Cyclone Hale strikes, MetService says.
Some Gisborne residents are being told to “prepare to evacuate” with conditions being described as being worse than Cyclone Bola.
A rain model is showing that the Hikuwai River could peak at 13.5m at 10pm tonight, exceeding Cyclone Bola levels.
Residents in low-lying areas near the Hikuwai River in Uawa have been asked by the Gisborne District Council to prepare to evacuate and farmers encouraged to move their stock to higher ground.
More than 100mm of rain fell overnight in the ranges with Gisborne getting around 40mm.
It is expected that a further 150mm to 200mm could fall on top of what has already fallen, according to MetService.
Tairāwhiti Civil Defence and Emergency manager Ben Green says people should delay travel and keep off the roads if they can.
With more rain still expected on already sodden ground, there could be slips and slumps around the region, he said.
The emergency valve at the Gladstone Road Bridge has been opened to release the pressure at 8am this morning, the council’s 4 Waters operation manager Chris Hopman said.
“The Wainui Road pump station is at the highest level we’ve ever seen,” he said.
“We need to open the valves into waterways to avoid wastewater overflows into people’s homes and through manholes on the street, which can cause health risks.”
The North Island is being hammered by the rapidly-moving ex-Cyclone Hale and forecasters are eyeing its move towards Auckland where residents are being warned of a dumping of rain and wild winds.
Police are warning of significant delays on State Highway 1 near Dome Valley, Warkworth where a tree has fallen across the northbound lane.
Roads in the Coromandel are flooding and slips are making driving tricky in some areas.
Anaura Bay Motor Camp manager Donna Williamson told the Herald Hikuwai river was at its peak today.
”There is expected to be a 6m swell, we are just waiting for a high tide. At the moment there are just puddles,” Williamson said.
“All campers have left the site. It’s just us here, we are also advised by the Civil Defence to move to higher ground. It has not fully hit us yet it is expected to get worse from the afternoon.”
Heavy rain warnings have been issued for Auckland and Northland, south of the Bay of Islands, with MetService predicting 90 to 120mm of rain and peak rates of 10 to 20mm/h.
MetService forecaster Allister Gorman told Newstalk ZB that the weather event would bring a lot of rain with it but not so much wind.
“It is moving towards the Hauraki Gulf area later today and we do expect it to take a turn to the East again. It is quite tricky to say just how close it will come to Coromandel and Auckland,” he said.
Gorman said Hale seemed to be travelling quickly
Ex-cyclone Hale is already dumping heavy rain in the Coromandel and causing surface flooding in Whangārei, which is expected to cop a month’s worth of rain in a single day.
Drains are overflowing and winds are picking up as Whangārei cops the worst of the blustery former cyclone’s wrath.
In Whitianga nearly 400 homes are without power and lawns and reserves close to the sea are starting to disappear under growing pools of floodwater.
At least one home has needed firefighters to clear floodwater from the property.
Thames Coromandel Civil Defence controller Garry Towler warned the weather conditions would be intense for the region today and tomorrow.
“Three roads have closed due to slips this morning.”
Holidaymakers were seen leaving the Coromandel ahead of the arrival of the fierce storm, amid MetService alerts of possible flooding, slips and hazardous driving conditions for Auckland and parts of Northland.
The tropical storm, New Zealand’s first of 2023, was expected to hit the North Island last night - earlier than previously forecast - and people are warned to brace for gale-force winds and extensive heavy rain that could last until Thursday morning.
The warning is in place for 19 hours, with streams and rivers expected to rise rapidly and surface flooding and slips possible. Driving conditions may be hazardous, MetService said.
Meanwhile, conditions off the Coromandel’s east coast were rapidly deteriorating ahead of Cyclone Hale making landfall.
The wind had risen last night and white caps were visible on the increasingly choppy sea hundreds of metres out from the Whitianga shoreline. The entire area was cloaked in a misty gloom.
Late yesterday afternoon a stream of traffic, many towing boats and laden with camping gear, was seen heading away from the Coromandel.
It came as MetService warned that eastward-facing parts of the North Island, like Coromandel and Gisborne that were drenched last week, “are again in the firing line” despite Hale being downgraded to a former tropical cyclone.
Heavy rain warnings have been issued for those regions as well as many others including Hawke’s Bay.
People are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings and stay alert to bulletins from local authorities.
“Cyclone Hale is approaching the North Island today, bringing rain and strong east to southeast winds to many areas,” MetService said.
“This is likely to be a significant adverse weather even with widespread effects, and more areas are likely to be added as the system moves closer and its exact track and intensity becomes more certain.”
Waka Kotahi NZ Transport Agency asked people to avoid unnecessary travel from last night until Wednesday morning.
Acting national manager maintenance and operations Jaclyn Hankin said heavy rain could cause surface flooding, trigger slips and cause streams and rivers to rise rapidly, which would require the agency to close some state highways.
“Stay alert for unreported hazards, such as surface flooding, slips, fallen trees and branches, and downed powerlines,” Hankin said.
“If you must travel, slow down and maintain a greater following distance between your vehicle and the one in front.”
East Coast settlements are being warned they may be cut off for days, with Civil Defence urging North Island residents to keep an eye on the approaching storm, with fears of widespread flooding and beaches hammered by dangerous 6m swells.
Everyone in the Coromandel is being warned to take shelter and be prepared to “ride out” ex-tropical cyclone Hale for 24 hours, with the North Island to take a direct hit from the approaching storm.
Here's a snapshot of the forecast rain, pressure and wind at Noon tomorrow (Tuesday) as Cyclone Hale approaches the North Island https://t.co/Yjbq0jgaoz ^PL pic.twitter.com/dyNLnfIPmz
— MetService (@MetService) January 8, 2023
Easterly swells of up to 6m are forecast to pound east-facing coasts from Northland to Wairarapa on Tuesday and Wednesday. MetService warns it could lead to coastal flooding and erosion around high tide.
New Zealand Civil Defence told people to make an emergency plan and prepare homes ahead of the tropical blast.
“If you are in Tairāwhiti, Hawke’s Bay or the Coromandel Peninsula, stay up to date by checking MetService warnings and following your local Civil Defence Emergency Management group on social media.”
With destructive gales and flood-threatening levels of rain forecast to hit much of the upper North Island, the national defence organisation advised people to secure items around properties and bring pets indoors, ensure livestock were gathered in a safe place. It also advised to secure boats or boat trailers.
Tairāwhiti Civil Defence warned locals across the region to be prepared and have a plan in case they needed to evacuate.
“If you know you could possibly get cut off, make plans to move now or be prepared with enough supplies for three days, including medication.
“If you’re camping in an exposed coastal area you should consider moving now.”
It said all unsealed roads across the region would be closed to heavy freight trucks from 8pm last night.
Here are the latest Severe Weather Warnings & Watches based on the forecast track of Cyclone Hale. More areas will likely be added in future issues as the system moves closer & its track & intensity becomes more certain https://t.co/qHyE5zzql5 ^PL pic.twitter.com/e1iDYPTFX8
— MetService (@MetService) January 8, 2023
Yesterday morning Thames-Coromandel District Council said those staying on the eastern seaboard needed to keep up-to-date with developments and be somewhere safe by last night, “ready to ride this out for at least 24 hours”.
Here's the latest track map for Cyclone Hale, which is still forecast to cross the North Island from the north on Wednesday https://t.co/7wKJumOqMX ^PL pic.twitter.com/8jxhoE8lwM
— MetService (@MetService) January 8, 2023
The centre of the low is expected to move into Northland, Auckland, Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty on tonight.
The areas most in the storm’s path included eastern parts of Northland, North Auckland, eastern Waikato, Coromandel, Bay of Plenty, East Cape and Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay, Wairarapa and the Cook Strait.
MetService’s latest models predict Cyclone Hale will hit the Coromandel Peninsula before travelling to the Waikato, through Taupō and hooking back towards Hawke’s Bay.
“We are not sugar coating this one, it will hit hard and likely cause coastal damage as well as the usual slips, surface flooding and power outages”.
The ex-tropical system was forecast to dump more than 230mm of rain in 24 hours with easterly gales and gusts exceeding 110km/h.
Coromandel civil defence controller Garry Towlersaid impacts would be felt from last night, peaking on Tuesday and passing through by Wednesday afternoon.
Coastal scientists forecast storm surges of up to 30cm or more above the three high tides over this time.
“The main areas of concern are erosion and inundation at Brophy’s and Buffalo beaches in Whitianga, erosion and structure damage across beaches all the way down to Whangamatā,” said Towler.
“Everyone on the Coromandel, especially on the eastern side needs to stay up to date and be somewhere safe by Monday night, ready to ride this out for at least 24 hours,” Towler said.
Cyclone Hale was located southwest of New Caledonia at midday on Sunday.
It will likely pass southwards over or near the eastern North Island tomorrow, before moving away to the east.
Ahead of the forecast cyclone, forestry operators in Northland, Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay were asked to stop work in severe weather.
“Strong winds and heavy rain can make forestry operations dangerous,” said Safetree chief executive Joe Akari.
”Please take heed of any MetService or Civil Defence warnings issued.”
AA Insurance head of home claims Tom Bartlett said people should check their properties before the cyclone hits.
“With heavy rain on the way for parts of the country which have seen a lot of rainfall already this year, we’re encouraging people to get out and check their properties while it is safe to do so, especially areas of your house that are prone to flooding,” Bartlett said.
Rural property owners should check that their property is secure and livestock moved to sheltered areas, he said.
Any items that could get caught up in the wind such as trampolines should be tied down, and if possible move outdoor furniture and barbecues inside or under cover.
Tower CEO Blair Turnbull says people with household emergency plans should be prepared to put them into action.
“Be prepared to evacuate quickly if it becomes necessary... make sure you do so safely and your property is secure by locking all doors and windows,” he said.
“We’re aware of the ways climate change is affecting our communities. Our data clearly shows the frequency of large events and the severity of the damage they cause, increasing over time.”
Emergency services were called to the scene about 8.30pm.