We are now in an extended dry spell

Drought stricken land near Maraekakaho. Photo / Hawke's Bay Today

It doesn't take long at this time of year for the ground to quickly dry out after recent rain. The northern half of the North Island recently experienced a deluge in some areas... the ground is still muddy and sodden in some parts of Waikato, not at all like February. However soon it will dry up and the soil will develop cracks.

We are now in an extended dry spell. Don't let the misleading icons on the TV weather forecasts confuse you. Many of the showers predicted this week will either be a) small or b) isolated. One of my biggest beefs with weather presentations in New Zealand is the use of rain clouds or shower clouds when conditions will be mostly dry for the majority - or the rain will be very brief, say an hour of rain at 7am.

I've sat around watching the weather forecasts on TV (which to be honest I don't do very often these days as it's all the same info I can read in the Herald or hear on the radio at any time of my choosing during the day) and they'll take a look at the week and there will be rain clouds dotted all over the place. I'll hear comments from others watching along the lines of "oh no, looks like a wet week is on the way". But in reality the forecast is really for a mainly dry week with just a 30 per cent chance of showers. Break it down further and you'll find those showers are isolated to the ranges or even out at sea...not necessarily for urban or populated places.

It's focusing on the negative...maybe it brings their weather maps to life. Maybe it's the computer software that's been programmed in to focus on the negative – as it's better to be safe than sorry. I opt for being more detailed or, if you can't, focus on the majority.

All the forecasts I prepare, or any of the WeatherWatch team prepare, are based on two things "the majority if the public" and "the majority of the weather on that day". Of course there are exceptions... the chance of a big isolated thunderstorm may warrant an icon. So too might a rain cloud if the downpour could be heavy enough to cancel events or have safety concerns. But the rule of thumb is – "overall" what will the weather be like on that day for "the majority". It's amazing how often in Auckland we use the sun slash cloud symbol at WeatherWatch.co.nz. The majority of weather in Auckland does fall under this icon. Today we have a 20 per cent risk of a shower. Certainly doesn't warrant a shower symbol, but the data does indicate that there's a risk...just a slight one.

On the other side of the coin there are the forecasters who have done research that shows the public have a slight (and it really is slight) preference towards being told it will rain. When I visited the Weather Channel in Atlanta last year we discussed all sorts of things involved with the science of forecasting. One thing that was briefly touched on was the fact the public tend to prefer to be told that there's the risk of rain rather than not. In other words, if we predict "sunny and cloudy periods" and then there's a shower the public will be more upset with that forecast than if we had "sunny and cloudy periods, risk of a shower" – and then no shower develops. It's almost 50/50 but it does lean slightly towards being forewarned of rain, even if only a slight risk.

I'm the opposite...unless that isolated shower will be heavy enough to wet my washing, or ruin the fresh paint, or water the garden – then I don't really want it featuring in my forecast as a giant rain cloud icon. Especially in summer, when a giant rain cloud icon can represent something in many peoples prayers – rain that will ease a drought, or fill up that dry water tank...and unfortunately the next 10 days look mostly dry.