KEY POINTS:
The spring flip flop of temperatures has begun already with temperatures much lower on Thursday around the country thanks to a cold front and a southerly change - but if you hate the return to colder weather you'll be pleased to know the warmth will return for the
weekend.
A ridge of high pressure over the North Island and a large area of low pressure in the Southern Ocean will create a 'squeeze zone' over the South Island - that squeeze zone, created by the sharp drop in air pressure between the high and the low, will bring strong nor'westers to the South Island and the lower part of the North Island by Sunday and into early next week.
So while a light southerly air flow today will keep temperatures a little lower, those warm nor'westers or northerlies will kick in during Saturday becoming strong south of Palmerston North by Sunday.
Those strong winds will, of course, bring a return to higher temperatures - probably between 20 and 25 degrees from Otago to north Canterbury. In the North Island temperatures are likely to be around the mid-to upper teens during Saturday, then the upper teens and early 20s on Sunday.
Writing about wind directions makes me wish New Zealand's Islands had been given better names than "North" Island and "South" Island. For example, it can be so confusing talking about northerlies over southern parts of the South Island or northerlies over eastern parts of the North Island! Throw in the Southern Ocean or places like Southland and Northland and suddenly we're bombarded with north and south directions!! Can be quite mind-numbing to listen to or read!
Behind the strong to gale nor'westers lies the predictable cooler change - hence the flip flop of temperatures. Hmmm -"hence" is a word that I would never say in a conversation but in writing it seems normal some how?
The most settled weather this weekend will be over northern New Zealand - especially Saturday and Sunday from Auckland northwards. Aucklanders still waiting for a truly 100% dry weekend may still be out of luck with the chance of a morning shower on Saturday - but it's certainly going to be very close - at the time of writing this (Friday) the showers were showing signs of drying up - time will tell if they linger into Saturday morning or not.
Remember to go to the Weather Watch Centre for our special Rain Tracker - this is something we're trialling so your comments would be appreciated. The Rain Tracker basically gives you a better opportunity to plan your day outdoors by letting you know where the rain clouds or showers lie across New Zealand.
Might be helpful if you're planning on going to the beach, hanging out the washing - or simply wanting a day outside, because we all know that a forecast for "showers" could mean either one or two tiny showers that you hardly notice - or a day indoors.
Anyway - it's certainly looking positive for most people this weekend with plenty of sun and hopefully a bit more warmth - have a great weekend!
Philip Duncan
Pictured above: Fishing for big kahawai near Maketu in the Bay of Plenty. Photo / Alan Gibson
For the latest weather news keep up to date with The Radio Network's new Weather Watch Centre or the NZ Herald weather section.