A warm, wet winter predicted this week by Niwa should be just what the farmer ordered, Wairarapa Federated Farmers meat and fibre chairman Alan Stuart said yesterday.
The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric research has released a forecast for early winter - May to July - predicting above average temperatures
and at least average rainfall in Wairarapa.
Mr Stuart says this will help bulk up pastures for farmers after a tough spring and summer that lasted into April.
"We've had a major catch-up Easter weekend," he said.
"We've been having a pretty rough time of it until about mid-April."
Pasture had been growing but not enough without the rain, he said.
"It's been green and the quality of feed is there. We just need the bulk."
Rain had "certainly replenished the soil reserves" around Wairarapa, Mr Stuart said, noting that 100mm had fallen in Mauriceville, where he lives, and around 40mm in eastern and southern Wairarapa.
He says it is not too late in the season to grow grass.
"Definitely May can be a good grass growth month. We've had some of our best growth in May," he said.
"Frost and cold southerlies knock [grass growth] on the head.
"We're not hoping for an onset of colder weather, we want to get the bulk up first."
Mr Stuart was due to present his annual report to Wairarapa Federated Farmers' annual meeting today, saying high lamb prices last season were offset by a 30 per cent drop in lambing numbers.
Wool prices have also increased and Mr Stuart expressed hope that Prince Charles' high-profile Campaign for Wool would be "accompanied by further price rises at the farm gate".
The Niwa outlook for May to July predicts above average temperatures for the whole North Island, and from Buller to Marlborough in the South Island.
Throughout the north and east of the North Island, rainfall is expected to be at or above normal levels, and around normal elsewhere.
For Wairarapa, Hawke's Bay and Gisborne, temperatures are likely (50 per cent probability) to be above average - with even odds (40 per cent each) on rainfall being either above or near average.
Soil moisture has similar odds to rainfall but river flows are slightly more likely to be near normal (45 per cent), as opposed to higher than normal (35 per cent).
The likelihood of any of the indicators - temperature, rain, soil moisture and rivers - being below average is just 20 per cent.
