GeoNet had expected, with a 99 per cent probability, aftershocks within a month of lesser magnitudes than the severe shake that will decrease in frequency over time, although there was up to a 15 per cent probability of an earthquake equal to or larger than magnitude 5.8.
Another large quake may be on a previously unknown fault in either the Pacific or Australian plates, or it may be on the plate interface, according to the GeoNet website.
An earthquake on the plate interface of greater than magnitude 7 was extremely unlikely. the website continues, "however, as with many places in New Zealand, an earthquake of this size can occur at any time".
The chances of an earthquake of magnitude 7 or greater had been "temporarily increased" by the severe Pongaroa tremor last week, according to GeoNet.