US Vice-President JD Vance has said that it’s up to Iran and the “ball is in their court” about furthering peace talks.
University of Waikato international law professor Al Gillespie told The Front Page that a lawful blockade must be declared, effective and must not block humanitarian goods such as food.
“The hard part is when you’ve got vessels from other countries, like China or Russia, which decide to continue to trade with Iran and try to get the oil out, and America seizes one of their vessels,” he said.
“That’s when it’s gonna get very sticky diplomatically, because the Russians or the Chinese or any other countries are gonna say they’ve got freedom of trade. And America’s gonna say there’s a blockade.
“This used to work really well in the 19th century. It doesn’t work so well in the 21st century.”
Gillespie said US Navy vessels would need to be present in the area to inspect ships, check manifests and seize vessels carrying Iranian goods.
“This will be a high-risk situation because this is probably what Iran’s been waiting for, because now they’ll be able to deploy what weapons that they’ve got that could hit the American vessels,” he said.
“So, whether you’re looking at sea mines, sea drones, fast attack boats or even missiles, this is where the risk will come, not just for the American vessels, which will be trying to control the strait, but also for any neutral vessels.”
For New Zealand, Gillespie said, the key questions are whether to support the blockade politically, object to it or advise Kiwi-flagged vessels about the risks of transiting the strait.
“Trump does not take criticism at all, and a lot of our policy has been trying not to offend Trump.
“So even though, when there are things which we strongly disagree with, if we say anything, we’ll say it in a very nuanced language, which is a difficult position to be in because many of the things he’s doing right now are outrageous.
“But this principle in particular, the freedom of the oceans, is not outrageous. He is correct on this principle. The problem is that there’s a paper war between the freedom of the oceans and the illegal war, which is on the other side.
“His alternative, if he walks away, is that he gives Iran the victory that he feared to begin with and not only would they have their nuclear ambitions uncontrolled, they would also control the waterway.
“He’s really backed himself into a corner right now and it’s for Iran to exploit this, more than America to open it up.”
Listen to the full episode to hear more about:
- Global trade
- How the situation could escalate
- The history of blockades
- New Zealand’s awkward dilemma
The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5pm. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.
You can follow the podcast at iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
