Efforts by competing airlines to get more New Zealanders on the move are under attack by a visiting American energy expert for flying in the face of dwindling global oil reserves.
Richard Heinberg, who argues in books such as his The Party's Over that the world is approaching
or has already passed its oil production peak, says New Zealand's physical isolation and associated dependence on aviation make it especially vulnerable to high fuel prices.
But he is gratified with the amount of electricity produced from renewable energy sources here, which he believes could give New Zealand a survival edge in a world in which video-conferences and other forms of telecommunications may have to become a substitute for international travel.
"With proper policy, New Zealand could be very well-placed relative to other nations for a power-down," Mr Heinberg said in Auckland yesterday.
"It would have to electrify its transport infrastructure and produce more food for local consumption and less for export - New Zealand's standard of living would probably change, but relative to many other countries it could come out quite well."
Mr Heinberg - who flew here from his home in California to brief organisations such as the Auckland Regional Transport Authority and the Green Party, and to address an ecology conference in Taupo at the weekend - said the aviation industry was in for a particularly tough time because it had no real alternative to oil-based fuel.
Although Air New Zealand is planning a flight test with Boeing and Rolls-Royce on a biofuel blend, he said that would be a very expensive substitute for the large quantities of oil needed for air travel.
"All the talk about biofuels is mostly talk - the quantity that will be available will always be quite small relative to the demand."
On the other hand, he believed the days of ocean travel may be coming back, and he said shipping goods over water was about 50 times more efficient than air freight.
"With ground transport we can electrify trains and use renewable energy and with ships, eventually we can supplement engines with sails, but with aircraft there are not other good options besides kerosene."
