US elections: Why Kamala Harris lost and the lessons for NZ’s Labour Party - Shane Te Pou

THREE KEY FACTS

• Donald Trump won the US presidential election this week with a decisive victory.
• It is the second time he has beaten a woman for the role.
• His support came not just from his base, but from middle America.

Shane Te Pou (Ngāi Tūhoe) is a commentator, blogger and former Labour Party activist.

OPINION

It’ll be no surprise that I wanted the Democrats and Kamala Harris to win this election.

But as I spent the last two weeks on the road here in the United States, particularly in the swing state of Pennsylvania, my nervousness grew. As I talked to a wide range of people, including independents, Donald Trump die-hards, and staunch Democrats, it felt more and more precarious.

The middle class feels ripped off: they haven’t had their fair share for quite some time. Inflation is hurting. Many people feel their financial situation has gone backwards, especially in Pennsylvania – a state that was once rich in jobs paying good wages. I spoke to people working in their late 50s and early 60s who had to work two or three jobs just to get by.

For many of them, Trump was seen as a way out. He promised to Make America Great Again.

Harris promised no economic hope. She was at her strongest when she initially took the nomination, buoyed by a reinvigorated base, and dismissed Trump as “weird”. But that momentum faded. She focused on making Trump the bogeyman. Her message about herself and her policies wasn’t strong or direct. She didn’t provide a clear pathway forward or offer real hope.

It would be totally wrong to say America is full of bigots who back Trump’s more distasteful policies. There are some people like that, but the people who decide elections are middle-of-the-road people who have voted for Bill Clinton and George Bush and Barack Obama and Joe Biden and Trump over the years. These are not extremists. But they are people looking for change.

This resonates with discussions I had at barbershops, bars and on the street – a sense of betrayal, of being left behind and not understood by society. Again, perhaps they saw Trump as a way out. I want to acknowledge I have sometimes demonised these folks, but after sitting down and sharing a coffee with them, I understand their perspective. They just want a fair deal, and they haven’t received it.

So, Harris lost the centre. But she also didn’t get Democrat voters to turn out. It seems Harris underperformed among black men, Latinos, and Muslims, in particular. Many left-wing voters who wanted a leader with the courage to take on the vested interests and deliver change didn’t see that from Harris and stayed away from the polls.

The Democrats need to soul-search and closely examine where they lost votes in 2024 compared to 2020. The traditional Democrat base of union workers no longer reliably votes for them. Workers have become tired of a workers’ party that only promises a kinder version of neoliberalism, rather than real change.

For many voters Donald Trump was seen as a way out.

Perhaps this is something the New Zealand Labour Party needs to consider, too.

People don’t want the status quo with minor, technocratic changes. If the left doesn’t offer real hope (think Obama, Tony Blair, and Jacinda Ardern) they’ll go to the right, who promise tax cuts and to burn down failed institutions, or they’ll just not vote.

Others will argue the solution is to tack to the right. A mate messaged me: “Biden pivoted too far left and tried to be the next FDR. There’s only so much Harris could have done; responsibility ultimately lies with him.”

But haven’t we seen time and again that if you only offer voters a choice between right-wing and right-wing-lite, they’ll go with the real thing?

Although the result didn’t go my way, I’ve enjoyed my road trip in the States. The American people are very hospitable. They want to talk about their lives and share their views with you, and they also want to hear about your life and your perspectives.

What unites us is deeper than what divides us. I was talking to a guy who identified as a soft Republican. What we had in common was our children and our hope for a better world, even though we disagreed on how to achieve it.

During our conversation, I mentioned I was going to a football game. He called his son and said, “I’ve got two guys from New Zealand here; they’re coming to the game.” After that, we showed up at Steve’s tailgate party, where we were well-fed, well-hydrated, and warmly welcomed by everyone. It was memorable.

This is not an unusual story in the US; this kind of hospitality has happened to me many times. Fundamentally, I believe folks here, like back home, are good people.

On my second-to-last day here, wanting to get home as quickly as I can, I had a brief exchange with an African-American maintenance guy at our hotel. He asked how I was, and I said, “I’m depressed, to be honest.” He replied, “Today’s a new day; let’s get on with life.”