KEY POINTS:
The battle to control Auckland City Council is coming down to a grudge match in blue-ribbon Hobson and the outcome in the middle class liberal ward of Eden-Albert.
Stung at losing two of the three Hobson seats in 2004, Citizens & Ratepayers is out for revenge against Action
Hobson, born out of the wave of anti-eastern highway opposition and providing an intelligent alternative to the traditional Citrats.
C&R needs a good result in Hobson and to win at least two of the three Eden-Albert seats if it is to regain control of the 20-strong council, preferably with its unofficial mayoral running mate John Banks at the helm.
The centre-right ticket is promising lower rates but its two-and-a-half-page manifesto offers slim pickings about what projects it would cut.
For City Vision-Labour, this election is about hanging on and hoping its organisational strength in wards like Eden-Albert, Western Bays and Tamaki-Maungakiekie will overcome voter resentment to three years of hefty rate rises and internal dissent over water rates.
Leader Bruce Hucker's hard line over higher water charges is now behind City Vision after Dr Hucker stood down. It now has a united front to abolish the policy of more than doubling water bills over 10 years to pay for other council spending.
Aaron Bhatnagar, son of Sir Roger Bhatnagar, has spent the best part of three years and countless dollars campaigning for C&R in Hobson and is quietly confident of reversing 2004's disastrous result.
His running mates are Auckland Rugby Union chairman Ken Baguley and historian Paul Goldsmith, who penned John Banks' biography. C&R's sole survivor from 2004 and party leader, Scott Milne, is retiring. That prompted much arm-twisting for former C&R leader and deputy mayor David Hay to stand again for council in Avondale-Roskill.
Making life difficult for C&R is Julie Chambers, a popular C&R community board member in Hobson, who was rejected by the hierarchy to stand for council. She is standing under the 1Auckland.com ticket, whose candidates include adult entertainment businessman Steve Crow.
Action Hobson will be no pushover. Its two councillors, Christine Caughey and Richard Simpson, have strong name recognition and have been effective councillors. They continue to push for removing the roading component on the eastern transport corridor across Hobson Bay, even though the highway is a dead duck and have run savvy campaigns for a stadium at Carlaw Park, a compromise on the billboard fiasco and council involvement in faster broadband.
However, they are vulnerable for supporting big rate rises and close links with City Vision. For example, they sided with Dr Hucker during the coup by Mayor Dick Hubbard to dump him as deputy mayor. Lately, they have made a point of saying they could work with Mr Banks.
This was more than a symbolic gesture. There is a good chance Hobson Action could hold the balance of power on the new council.
That would leave Mr Banks, if he wins, having to negotiate a path on an issue-by-issue basis. That makes Eden-Albert all the more crucial for C&R and City Vision. Upsets in the other five wards are unlikely.
Boundary changes in Eden-Albert favour C&R to the tune of about 700 new voters in Epsom. However, C&R have not done themselves any favours by waiting to the last minute to select three largely unknown candidates - Ryan Hicks, David Ross and Wendy Tighe-Umbers - after unsuccessful attempts to lure back Mark Donnelly and Greg McKeown.
Mr Donnelly has become so disillusioned with C&R he is standing under a new ticket, Focus Eden-Albert. With a high profile as chairman of the Eden Albert Neighbours' Association, he poses a threat to C&R and City Vision.
The biggest challenge for the three City Vision councillors, Glenda Fryer, Cathy Casey and Neil Abel, is to get the centre-left vote out.
