KEY POINTS:
Spring is stepping up a notch now with gales becoming more and more frequent and the strength of the lows intensifying.
Tuesday and Wednesday this week look like they're going to be pretty rough across the North Island as a low in the Tasman/South Island deepens creating a
strong north west flow.
As I said before the strong winds are created in that squeeze zone between the centre of the low and the centre of the high - and with the low over the South Island it means the strong nor'wester will this time miss the South Island's east coast and instead shift further north to cover the entire North Island.
Nor'westers will pick up during Monday and by Tuesday they'll rise to gale force (sustained winds of 62km/h) in exposed places particular to the east of any hills or ranges - with gusts much higher. Some places in the east (Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa) are likely to see gusts over 130km/h if the conditions are right - and locals will know what that means - it'll be hot.
The Weather Watch Centre estimates temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 20s for a number eastern regions, particularly inland. These strong winds will mostly pose problems for motorists so if you're tackling the Napier Taupo highway, the Rimutaka Ranges, or the Desert road just be aware those big gusts could come out of nowhere. Even the Harbour Bridge in Auckland should see some pretty impressive gusts.
The strong winds will affect Auckland too so boaties are advised to check their moorings before the winds really pick up although not being an easterly should be a plus for Waitemata Harbour. Manukau Harbour, on the other hand, will be treacherous with rough seas and hurricane force winds - perhaps reaching 150km/h - on the Manukau Heads.
When there's a strong westerly the air piles up along the Waitakeres and funnels through into Manukau Harbour. This funnel affect (similar to what happens to the Waikato River through the Huka Falls) creates incredible wind speeds - in fact during the weekend gusts over Auckland reached about 60km/h but it was up to almost 120km/h out on the Heads.
Rain will also be heavy for a time on Tuesday as the main front moves in - mostly for regions that face west or north west - but there are about 4 fronts on the attack over the next few days with winds strong from the westerly quarter right up until Friday. This isn't good news for parents wanting to get the kids outdoors for the school holidays. And wouldn't you know it - by the weekend conditions might settle down again, which is good news for those who aren't on holiday this week I guess!
The Weather Watch Centre will be closely monitoring this storm during Tuesday and Wednesday so make sure check out www.weatherwatch.co.nz regularly during Tuesday.
Philip Duncan
Pictured above: Windsurfers take advantage of gusty winds in the water off Beach Rd, Bay of Plenty. Photo / Jimmy Joe
For the latest weather news keep up to date with The Radio Network's new Weather Watch Centre or the NZ Herald weather section.