As Trump changes tariff deadline again, what will it mean for New Zealand? - The Front Page

The Trump tariffs are inching closer towards becoming a reality.

While they were meant to kick into gear last week, they’ve been delayed again – this time to August 1.

Despite being accused of “chickening out”, Donald Trump has reignited the tariff talk through a series of letters and social media posts, announcing new duties on dozens of countries if they don’t sign trade deals.

In the most recent round of tariff threats, the US President said he would impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, and that could creep up if Canada retaliates. He also announced 30% tariffs on all imports from Mexico and the European Union, after negotiations failed.

NZ Herald business editor at large Liam Dann told The Front Page Trump has also threatened that the base tariff, which would affect New Zealand, could go from 10% up to 15% or 20%.

“But, it’s very hard to know how seriously to take that because that’s the way Donald Trump negotiates. In theory, he’s trying to put pressure on those negotiations with a big, scary number,” he said.

 In April, the Trump administration promised “90 deals in 90 days”. They have managed two: the UK and Vietnam. While a partial deal regarding rare earth exports was signed with China in late June, some significant duties remain.

“It’s harder than it might seem from the outside to do these trade deals. They’re very complicated. It can take years to do,” Dann said.

So, what does it mean for New Zealand?

“We are still supposed to be just looking at a 10% base tariff. The businesses that are most affected, the beef and meat sector, the wine sector, have been working on talks with trading partners and customers, and I think largely we’ll be okay.

“The cost is going to be borne by US consumers, unless it means they say no to our goods and we have to drop the price a bit to keep the same volumes up, and we don’t have somewhere else to send the products. But if we’ve got other markets interested in our products, then we are not desperate.

“The US needs a lot of our beef. It doesn’t generate enough low-grade beef for hamburgers and things like that. So it actually needs New Zealand, Brazilian, Argentinian and Australian meat to go into all those hamburgers. So, I think those sectors will be alright,” Dann said.

Listen to the full episode to hear more about how the tariffs might affect the global economy, and whether Liam actually thinks they’ll happen.

The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.

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