The annual trade deficit widened in October as higher oil shipments pushed imports to a record, outpacing a gain in exports.
The gap widened to $5.22 billion in the 12 months ended October 31 from $5.05 billion in the year through September, Statistics New Zealand said yesterday.
Themedian estimate in a Bloomberg survey of eight analysts was a $5.21 billion shortfall.
The annual trade gap is the widest this year and the deficit may grow as a recession in the major economies slashes commodity prices and curbs demand for exports.
Prices of butter, meat and other export commodities dropped 7.4 per cent from September, the most in 21 years, says an index compiled by ANZ National Bank.
"The underlying trade deficit trend continues to worsen," said Shamubeel Eaqub, economist at Goldman Sachs JBWere in Auckland.
He expects the economies of New Zealand's major trading partners to grow 2.2 per cent this year and just 0.5 per cent in 2009, which will weigh on commodity prices. Still, the dollar's 30 per cent fall against the US currency in the past six months would provide some support for exporters, he said.
Import growth might also slow amid a domestic recession, which was likely to curb demand for cars, consumer goods and business equipment, Eaqub added.
In October, imports rose 15 per cent from a year earlier to a record $4.78 billion, Statistics NZ said.
The figures are not adjusted for inflation and reflect higher prices for imports as well as actual shipments. Crude oil imports almost doubled as prices rose from a year earlier and the volume delivered increased 40 per cent, the agency said.
Exports rose 14 per cent in October from a year earlier to $3.83 billion. The trend in export growth was slowing, Statistics NZ said. The annual increase averaged about 30 per cent in the three months ended August.
Sales of milk powder, butter and cheese, almost one-fifth of overseas shipments, rose 14 per cent in October from a year earlier. Meat, logs and seafood rose too.
In October, there was a $942 million trade deficit compared with $774 million a year earlier. Economists expected a $1 billion deficit.
