KEY POINTS:
I read the comment posted in my blog on Wednesday (Pete from Torbay) and I somewhat I agree with it. I don't mind casting an informal opinion on a long range forecast, but it's never more than a gut instinct, mixed with a review of recent weather patterns.
I've said a number of times that New Zealand is simply two small, mountainous, islands in the roaring 40s on the side of the world's largest ocean - across our tiny landscape we have one of the wettest places on earth and some pretty dry regions too - there is going to be a lot of luck in forecasting more than several days out.
From personal experience I find long range weather maps give you a fairly decent idea as to what to expect over the next seven days, but that's looking at it in a generic nationwide way. To break down into regions becomes much harder more than 3 or 4 days out - especially when there's a slow, disorganised, system like the rain band we've had over northern New Zealand this week.
Last year's Summer was certainly one for the history books. The La Nina system favoured a wet or cloudy summer for many northern regions - but instead droughts were common place. Only Northland seemed to get rain last summer. So yes, there's agreement with Pete on long range forecasts. I'll throw in my 2 cents based on current patterns and gut instinct - which I think has been a pretty good guide this year.
NIWA even admit that New Zealand is a hard country to give long range forecasts for - in fact, they don't call them forecasts they call them seasonal outlooks. You can't really use a seasonal outlook to see if your January holiday will be a wet one at a particular place and time. They're also for a 3 month average and the outlooks are generic for entire regions. I think NIWA cop a bit of unnecessary flack because of this simple misunderstanding of their predictions.
Anyway - this weekend I can tell you that it's gonna be a scorcher, especially Saturday!
Inland and eastern parts of the South Island will be into the late 20s and maybe even the early 30s. It's a similar story across Wairarapa, inland Hawkes Bay and East Cape. Temperatures will also be high in most inland areas including Bay of Plenty, Waikato, Manawatu and Central Plateau. In fact Waiouru was warmer than Auckland at one point earlier this week! All the main centres will be hot or at least very warm - especially Hamilton, Christchurch and Dunedin.
A large high has been anchored on both sides of the South Island all week and won't be moving away until later on Saturday. A strong nor'west flow will build (helping lift temperatures even further in the east). Rain will move up the West Coast this weekend with heavy falls in the ranges. That front should fall apart significantly as it moves into Auckland overnight Sunday/Monday morning.
At this stage - and I say at this stage! - the forecast for next week shows another large high moving in from the Tasman Sea - possibly bringing even warmer air than this week's high.
Have a great weekend - and don't forget we're really into sunburn weather now. Burn times are now very short.
Philip Duncan
Pictured above: Paco Divers in action at Makorori Beach in Gisborne recently at the ONeill Sequence Surf Shop Pro competition. Photo / Cory Scott NZ SURFING MAGAZINE
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