Small vehicles, hybrids and diesels are the way to go, reports motoring editor Alastair Sloane
Barack Obama Global automotive analysts are pretty much unanimous: the outcome of President Barack Obama's proposed fuel economy and exhaust emissions standards for the United States will ultimately change the world's carpark.
The most likely result between now and the planned 2016 introduction of the new standards is:
* Sports utility vehicles will become smaller.
* Diesel engines will become more prevalent.
* Carmakers will offer hybrid powertrains in just about everything.
* More carmakers will roll out plug-in electric cars.
* Sales of small/medium cars will soar.
The proposal would require the US passenger vehicle fleet to average 35.5 miles (51.1km) per US gallon (3.78 litres) of fuel by 2016, saving 1.8 billion barrels of oil a year.
It would also instruct the US Environmental Protection Agency to regulate CO2 exhaust emissions for the first time to 250g/mile.
The European Union wants an average CO2 emissions limit across Western Europe's fleet of 130g/km by 2012.
The previous Labour Government proposed a 170g/km standard for New Zealand by 2015.
The US initiative marks the strictest plan ever for increasing fuel standards for passenger vehicles, sharply raising pressure on struggling carmakers to make more efficient cars and trucks.
It will also add to the cost of vehicles.
"The status quo is no longer acceptable," Obama said. "We have done little to increase fuel efficiency of America's cars and trucks for decades."
Some vehicles, mostly made or imported into the US by Japanese, South Korean and European carmakers, already meet or exceed the standards set to be proposed.
Carmakers worldwide - including General Motors, which is on the brink of bankruptcy - voiced support for the plan.
"GM and the auto industry benefit by having more consistency and certainty to guide our product plans," said GM chief executive Fritz Henderson.
Toyota US chief Jim Lentz said the single national standard will enhance vehicle choice for consumers.
In Germany, senior BMW executive Friedrich Eichiner said: "Consistency of legislation and planning certainty are not only crucial for synchronising product development and regulatory requirements but also for enabling companies to remain viable, profitable and sustainable."
The EPA and US Department of Transportation believe carmakers have already perfected much of the technology to meet the stricter standards.
Some of this is already available in New Zealand.
* Direct-injection engines improve fuel economy by around 6 per cent.
* Smaller turbocharged engines reduce weight while preserving the performance of a big engine. Fuel economy gains can be as much as 15 per cent.
* Dual-clutch transmissions, continuously variable transmissions, and six-speed manuals and automatics contribute to gains of between 5 and 10 per cent.
* Stop-start systems. Often called mild hybrids. Mini will launch its model here soon and Volkswagen has been trialling a stop-start Passat sedan. The technology offers 10-15 per cent fuel savings.
* Common-rail diesels are an accepted 30 per cent more fuel-efficient than the same capacity petrol engine, one reason for the growth of diesels in the passenger car market.
In New Zealand, sales of such vehicles have gone from a 1 per cent share in 2004 to 8 per cent last year.
Add in sports utility vehicles and diesel's slice of passenger cars in New Zealand in 2008 was 13 per cent. Diesel is expected to have 20 per cent by 2015.
The projected growth of the diesel passenger car market will be penalised under the independent review into road user charges, released recently.
The review recommends hiking the charges on diesel vehicles under 5 tonnes, while reducing those for heavier diesel trucks.
The regime is a post-pump tax on diesel vehicles.
The owner of a passenger car under 2 tonnes pays an upfront fee of $36.07 for every 1000km. Tax on petrol vehicles is built into the price of the fuel at the pump.
Road user charges were designed to recover the costs imposed on the roading system by heavy transport users at a time when small diesel passenger cars were non-existent.
The report, commissioned by the former Labour Government in August last year, and released by Transport Minister Steven Joyce, has angered carmakers.
BMW, for example, says it highlights the need for a complete re-think on the treatment of diesel passenger cars in New Zealand.
Managing director Mark Gilbert, one of the motoring industry's senior figures, says the increasing tax burden on diesel passenger cars contradicts the government's own policy encouraging the use of fuel-efficient vehicles.
"On the one hand, the Government is seeking to encourage car buyers to compare fuel efficiency and buy economical vehicles, but road user charges see these motorists penalised under a system designed for heavy commercial trucks," said Gilbert.
"The Government should be incentivising the move to cleaner, more fuel-efficient diesel vehicles, not penalising these motorists to subsidise trucking companies."
Gilbert cited the example of the Government's own fleet of diesel-powered BMW 7-Series limousines as an example of the "absurdity" of the charges.
"The Department of Internal Affairs awarded its VIP fleet contract to BMW on the grounds of extremely low whole-of-life costs and the fact that the BMW 730d outperforms cars half its size in terms of fuel economy," he said.
"To then impose the same weight-based road user charges tax as that of a commercial truck is sheer lunacy.
"A new BMW 730d series weighs more than 2 tonnes and is therefore classified as a large diesel car under the road user charges system.
"However, its combined fuel economy figure of 7.2 litres/100km earns a four-star fuel economy rating, the same rating as a petrol-powered 1.4-litre Fiat 500, which weighs 930kg and pays no road user charges."
Carmakers want RUCs to be dumped in favour of a diesel tax at the pump.
Heavy transport operators would pay a separate fee, linked to the weight and fuel efficiency of their vehicles.
But an industry insider says carmakers are "flogging a dead horse" with a diesel pump tax.
"Short-term, it's not going to happen," he said. "Long-term, yes, it probably will."
* The US Government is also looking into the use of diesel hybrid train engines and improved railway networks to ease oil imports and the long-haul movement on United States roads of heavy freight rigs.
One report says trucking companies will have to invest so heavily to meet the proposed fuel and emissions standards that some operators will go out of business.
Rail freight, it said, "could be re-invented with a 'green' image. The future of new-technology rail looks better all the time."
