The Front Page: After ex-Cyclone Lola - when will the downpours end?

After 10 months of persistent rain, North Islanders this week faced the onslaught of ex-tropical cyclone Lola as it made its way across the country.

MetService issued several weather warnings for the North Island as heavy downpours and strong winds battered the region.

The stormy conditions left thousands without power and served as a strong reminder of how damaging these weather events can be.

The inclement weather left North Islanders questioning when warmer conditions and sunshine would finally arrive.

Speaking to The Front Page podcast, NZ Herald science writer Jamie Morton says El Niño conditions should bring drier weather to the North Island, but this could take time.

“El Nino is still only forming up, really,” he said.

“We wouldn’t really expect to see the regime or its full colours until the peak of summer, when that atmospheric signal is the strongest.”

Morton pointed out that while no two El Nino events are the same, they usually bring dry weather to the northeast and wetter weather to the southwest of the country.

The strongest impact of the El Nino conditions will not be felt in Auckland, but rather in Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne.

“It’s likely to be quite dry and hot,” says Morton.

“One other signal that we can expect to see is a lot more westerlies and a lot stronger wind. Everyone’s going to get that, no matter where you’re living – whether [that’s in] Auckland, Wellington or the East Coast.”

Morton says that at the very least North Islanders can expect to see a different picture to what we had last summer, when those warmer months were typified by northeasterlies and atmospheric rivers.

“This time we’re likely to see more westerly systems, which will mean a lot of warm weather, but areas like West Auckland are still going to be exposed to showery weather.”

The good news, says Morton, is that the changing conditions will stop many of those subtropical rainmakers, which produce the heaviest rain, from coming down to Aotearoa.

“I don’t think it’s going to be like what we saw back in 2020 when you had that regional drought. And the good news is that Watercare says the dam levels in Auckland are looking quite good.”

To listen to a full discussion our everchanging climate, listen to the latest episode of The Front Page podcast.

The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. It is presented by Damien Venuto, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in business reporting who joined the Herald in 2017.

You can follow the podcast at iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.