“It’s quite odd to see both parties play down their chances,” says Pearse.
“National see themselves as the underdog simply because Labour won the seat in 2020, which is fair enough but it ignores the history of the seat having being held by [National’s] Tim MacIndoe since 2008.”
Meanwhile, Labour has pointed to the messy departure of Sharma as having a major impact on their chances of winning the seat again.
As the things stand, the political tussle will likely come down to a two-horse race between National’s Tama Potaka and Labour’s Georgie Dansey, but Pearse says we should be careful about discounting the other contenders too fast.