“It’s quite odd to see both parties play down their chances,” says Pearse.
“National see themselves as the underdog simply because Labour won the seat in 2020, which is fair enough but it ignores the history of the seat having being held by [National’s] Tim MacIndoe since 2008.”
Meanwhile, Labour has pointed to the messy departure of Sharma as having a major impact on their chances of winning the seat again.
As the things stand, the political tussle will likely come down to a two-horse race between National’s Tama Potaka and Labour’s Georgie Dansey, but Pearse says we should be careful about discounting the other contenders too fast.
- So who else is running?
- How much will this byelection cost?
- What issues are likely to determine the winner?
- Who needs this win the most between National and Labour?
- Does Sharma have a realistic possibility of winning?
- And is this byelection the dress rehearsal for the general election next year?
Listen to today’s edition of The Front Page with Damien Venuto for the answers to these questions.