The Front Page: How worried should we be about Kiwis leaving for Australia?

The warm weather in Australia is a major pull factor for those considering a change of scenery. Photo / City of Gold Coast

Rich-lister Ben Cook and fashion designer Tamzyn Adding are just some of the high-profile figures who have recently announced they are leaving New Zealand.

They aren’t alone, with data released in July showing the largest net migration loss (13,400 people) to Australia since 2013.

Speaking to The Front Page podcast, population expert and Massey University distinguished Professor Emeritus Paul Spoonley says it’s important to put these numbers into a broader historical context.

“When we look at the early 2000s, it’s actually a lot lower than you saw at that particular period,” says Spoonley.

“And by the time we got to the Global Financial Crisis, we were seeing a very significant outflow. In 2012, about 60,000 people left to live in Australia and the net loss was 43,000. As we came out of the GFC, that dampened down a wee bit. We’re really seeing the same levels of migration to and from Australia that we saw in 2017 and 2018.”

So, do these net loss figures seem likely to go even higher from this point?

“I fully expect to see the net loss to Australia go up from the 13,500 we’re currently talking about, but I don’t expect it to go up to those historic highs of 40,000 to 45,000 that we saw in 2011 and 2012,” says Spoonley.

Australian firms are working hard to attract New Zealand workers across the Tasman, with lucrative offers and promises of a better quality of life.

“Australian firms are offering very, very generous deals for you to now go and live in Australia,” Spoonley says.

“If you look at the relocation packages, you will typically get between $10,000 and $20,000. You get considerable benefits to go and live there. And sometimes, of course, you also get a considerably higher salary.”

At a time when New Zealanders are grappling with the high cost of living, these are all powerful incentives for some to pack up their bags and move their family abroad.

Another big pull factor towards Australia is the weather, which certainly seems appealing as New Zealand braces for yet another winter storm in the coming days.

“We call it sunshine migration,” says Spoonley.

“It occurs inside New Zealand, with places like Nelson and Tauranga benefitting. And you can also see it between us and Australia, with migrants who go to Brisbane or the Gold Coast. It is a fact. It’s a very real factor.”

• So, how much migration should we expect out of NZ?
• How concerned should we be about rich people leaving the country?
• Will a brain drain hit our productivity?
• And are we doing enough to entice the Kiwi diaspora living abroad back home?

Listen to the full episode of The Front Page podcast to hear more on these issues.

The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. It is presented by Damien Venuto, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in business reporting who joined the Herald in 2017.

You can follow the podcast at iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.