The Front Page: Five years in, have Labour and Jacinda Ardern lost their stardust?

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern faces a tough challenge to be re-elected next year. Photo / NZME

On October 19, 2017, New Zealand First leader Winston Peter threw support behind the New Zealand Labour Party, making Jacinda Ardern the 40th Prime Minister of New Zealand.

Given the dire straits Labour was in before that, few would have expected the young politician from Morrinsville to rise to the occasion.

To borrow from former National leader Bill English, Ardern had some stardust.

Her five years in charge have been some of the most tumultuous any Prime Minister has seen. The pandemic, two terrorist attacks and a volcanic eruption are just some of the challenges she has faced.

Her effectiveness in responding with the hand she was dealt saw Labour surge to an unprecedented 61 seats at the last general election.

Since then, Labour's fortunes have shown signs of turning, with the latest polls showing the party in the mid-30s.

So how much stardust does Ardern still have left? And will it be enough to carry Labour across the line in 2023?

Newstalk ZB deputy political editor Jason Walls has followed Ardern's rise from the press gallery since she won in 2017.

"She was incredibly popular," Walls tells the Front Page podcast.

"During Covid-19, her preferred Prime Minister rating was up in the 60s, almost hitting 70 per cent in some polls. It was absolutely stratospheric. We haven't seen anything like that. Even John Key didn't get to those levels of popularity."

Despite coming back down to earth, Walls says her preferred Prime Minister rating still sits quite high in the 30s.

"Her popularity is still inextricably linked to the Labour Party. However, as she does start to become less popular – and we've seen her dip a little bit and Christopher Luxon starting to edge up a little bit – that will start to impact on Labour as well."

Walls argues that the Labour Party will not be able to win the next election solely on the popularity and Covid track record of Ardern.

"They're going to have to come out with some pretty meaty, substantial policies to bring votes back to Labour."

Contributing to Labour's recent struggles is the fact that some of their policies have not resonated with the public as well as they should have.

No recent policy has proven more divisive than Three Waters, which has faced opposition around the country and given talking points to opposition politicians looking to capitalise on frustrated New Zealanders.

"You can't really get around how controversial Three Waters has been," says Walls.

"The divisive nature of the co-governance side has been an opportunity for the opposition ... Three Waters is something the Government needs to look at to see if it's worth losing the election over. If they cut it, they might have more opportunity in the 2023 election than if they go forward with it."

When you combine the Three Waters issue with the cost-of-living crisis and the frustration many New Zealanders have felt over the course of the pandemic response, the next election does start to look quite challenging for Labour.

• The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am.

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