The Front Page: Tremors under Lake Taupō trigger rise in supervolcano alert level for first time in history

Geologists are closely monitoring Lake Taupō in a bid to understand why the tremors are happening. Photo / Peter Wilton

Ongoing tremors underneath Lake Taupō have seen the alert level for the supervolcano rise for the first time in history.

Geologists are closely monitoring the site in a bid to understand why this is happening.

Dr Finn Illsley-Kemp, a seismologist from Victoria University of Wellington, tells The Front Page podcast the volcano last erupted around 1800 years ago, in 232 AD.

The activity in the region has led to Taupō being lifted in August last year to alert level one, which Illsley-Kemp describes as “a state of minor unrest”.

The danger of a supervolcano has been hyped in the media because of the risk posed by a large eruption, but Illsley-Kemp says this is often exaggerated.

“The term ‘supervolcano’ can be problematic in that it’s been sensationalised, particularly the Yellowstone volcano, which is often called a supervolcano that’s going to destroy the world,” Illsley-Kemp says.

“A supervolcano is quite a specific geological term, and all that means is that at some point in this volcano’s history, it has had an eruption, which is classed as a super eruption.”

Such an eruption must exceed 1000 cubic kilometres, an event that last happened at Taupō 25,000 years ago.

“What’s really important is that the word supervolcano doesn’t tell us anything about what might happen in the future,” Illsley-Kemp says.

“It’s perfectly possible there will never be a super eruption again at Taupō and, in fact, it’s far more likely, based on the geological record, that the eruptions are actually quite small.”

So how much risk are we at? How good have seismologists become at predicting earthquakes and volcanic activity? And what is the risk to those living in New Zealand?

Listen to the full episode of The Front Page to hear Illsley-Kemp give his view on the grumbles underneath Aotearoas soil.