Stats NZ forecasts show Tauranga's population will increase by almost 90,000 residents in the next 30 years. Photo / File
Tauranga could be the fourth-largest city in New Zealand in just 22 years and new residents say the city’s pace of life is one of its major drawcards.
Tauranga’s population is projected to push toward a quarter of a million by mid-century, overtaking Wellington and driving major changes in how the “thriving city” develops and plans for the future.
Stats NZ population projections show the city will add almost 90,000 residents in the next 30 years, accelerating demand for infrastructure, housing and transport networks.
Data shows Tauranga’s population is projected to reach 248,200 residents by 2053 from an estimated 158,900 residents in 2023.
This represents a total increase of 89,300 residents and an average annual growth rate of 1.5%.
Wellington’s population of 209,800 is forecast to grow to 230,500 by 2053, putting the capital on track to slip from the third-largest city to fifth as Tauranga surges ahead, closely following Hamilton, which is projected to take over third place with a population of 262,000.
Tauranga’s growth positions the city as a key hub for investment and employment, attracting both new residents and businesses seeking long-term certainty.
Lilantha Wijerathne came to Tauranga from Sri Lanka in August last year and told the Bay of Plenty Times the primary reason for moving was education.
“My wife had an interest in studying a master’s in adult teaching, and we selected Toi Ohomai in the city.”
He said the city was calm, quiet and “very easy” to manoeuvre.
“There’s no hassles here, and I like that.”
Wijerathne said the quiet nature of the city was the biggest difference compared with Sri Lanka and said he really appreciated that about Tauranga.
“There is also obviously the high standard of living, the quality of work is high, the cleanliness is high, and the amenities are good.
“I’d give Tauranga a seven out of 10 rating.”
Tony and Rachel Sweetman, owners of Padel Club NZ in Pāpāmoa, spent the past 10 years working in the south of France and opened their club in March 2025.
Rachel told the Bay of Plenty Times Tauranga was the “perfect place” to open the club.
“It offers the ideal mix of a thriving city and the relaxed charm of a coastal town.
“Life here feels calmer than in many other parts of New Zealand.”
She said finding the right piece of land was one of the biggest challenges when opening a new business in the region, which led the couple to Papamoa.
“As Tauranga’s fastest-growing suburb, Papamoa offers more available land than many other parts of the city.”
Stats NZ data showed Papamoa Beach’s population hit 37,900 last year, up about 3300 since the 2023 Census.
“We deliberately chose a high-profile site on a busy commuter route so that people would notice the club.”
Tauranga Mayor Mahé Drysdale said the forecast growth in Tauranga was “definitely an opportunity” to get ahead of development and influence how and where growth occurred.
“The council’s ongoing responsibility is to maintain planning and delivery momentum over the next two decades to prepare for the projected growth in residents.”
He said the council was focused on simplifying building processes and delivering supporting infrastructure more cost-effectively.
“The city will be inclusive, value and protect its environment, and have a strong, diverse economy.”
Drysdale said the council was looking for ways to better shape growth to align with the future vision for the city.
“As we continue towards our goal of New Zealand’s best city, more and more people will want to live here, and we have to provide the means for a well-planned city and not just let ad hoc growth happen to us.”
He said if managed effectively, growth would deliver a vibrant city with strong productivity and job opportunities.
“Proactive planning and implementation are essential to maintain productivity and liveability.”
Bay of Plenty Regional Council chief executive Fiona McTavish said the regional council took a “whole-of-region” approach to planning for growth.
“Regional connectivity is vital for economic productivity and reducing growth pressure on Tauranga.”
McTavish said future success for the Bay of Plenty would look like “thriving” and connected communities, resilient infrastructure and healthy ecosystems.
“This is achieved by planning for growth in a way that is aligned with good spatial and environmental planning.”
Tauranga MP Sam Uffindell told the Bay of Plenty Times Tauranga was a “great place” and because of that, people wanted to move to the city.
“As someone who spends a lot of time in both cities, Tauranga is a much better place than Wellington.”
Uffindell said he was committed to ensuring Tauranga received its fair share of funding from the central Government.
“By 2048, if we have delivered what we must, Tauranga will be one of the best places to live in the world.”
Kaitlyn Morrell is a journalist for the Bay of Plenty Times and Rotorua Daily Post. She has lived in the region for several years and studied journalism at Massey University.