Rain Means Under
Bookmakers just don't adjust the line low enough when conditions are wet. Over the last decade, NRL games have seen the 'Total Combined Points' option go under at a rate of 62% when conditions have been wet. The Dragons and Storm both go under at 85% when they play in inclement conditions.
Defence Wins the Premiership
The best indicator of premiership success is defence. Since 2006, only one team not ranked in the Top 3 of points conceded has won a title. Seven of the last 12 premiers have been the top-rated defensive side. North Queensland, who were the fifth best defensive team when they won the title in 2015, were the lowest ranked defensive team to win a premiership since 2005.
Small Interstate Underdogs Are Money
Small interstate underdogs are typically the better team who are factored down because of travel. That is generally a case of overhyping home-field advantage and underrating good teams' ability to travel. Interstate underdogs of 3.5 or less, cover at an excellent 67% while head-to-head punters have profited at 20%.
Key Players Are Critical
Great players always make a difference but key players can and do change betting lines. Every team has a player or two that are required. The Warriors need Issac Luke and Shaun Johnson. North Queensland have long struggled without Johnathan Thurston. South Sydney have Sam Burgess and Greg Inglis but it is Damien Cook who is their key man. When a key player is out, be wary about backing said team.
