Milwaukee Brewers fields the ball during a baseball game between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Cincinnati Reds at Miller Park on April 18, 2018, in Milwaukee, WI. / Photosport
Milwaukee Brewers fields the ball during a baseball game between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Cincinnati Reds at Miller Park on April 18, 2018, in Milwaukee, WI. / Photosport
There are almost twice as many games in the Major League Baseball regular season as any other major sport.
This makes it the perfect sport for system betting if you find a winning angle and stick to it, you should come out on top over the long run. The numberof games increases the likelihood of regression to the mean.
Look for division underdogs:
Division rivals play each other 18 times every season in the MLB. The familiarity that this fosters has led to a much more level playing field in games between division rivals as opposed to out of division matchups. Underdogs in division matchups have won 43.6% of games since 2005 and produce a return on investment 4% higher than non-division underdogs.
A high expected run total is also a good indicator as to when you want to be backing a division underdog as their win rate closely correlates with the run total for that game. Division underdogs in games with a total of 10.5 or higher have produced a ROI of nearly 8% since 2005.
Major League Baseball's most popular teams, such as the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers are always going to be popular with the casual bettor which can result in them being underpriced in the betting markets as the bookies know they will still attract bets even if they do not represent value.
Another area where this can pay dividends is with the run totals in games between two winning sides. Given the tendencies for the public to gravitate towards winning sides and bet the 'over the total' for these games, it can often be artificially inflated. Games between two sides with winning records have stayed under the total 58% of the time over the last five years.
It always pays to check the weather before placing your bets, particularly which way the wind is blowing. Games, where the wind has been blowing in from the outfield towards home plate at five miles per hour or more, have gone under the total more than 55% of the time in the last 12 years.
If the wind is a factor then you also want to be aware of the tendencies of the starting pitchers. Pitchers who produce more flyball outs will thrive when the wind is blowing in but are vulnerable if it's going the other way.
