Survey shows voters don't want early poll

By FRANCESCA MOLD political reporter

A poll showing most New Zealanders are strongly opposed to an early election could harden the Government's resolve to tough out problems plaguing its junior Coalition partner and go the full three-year term.

In the first poll dealing with growing speculation of an early election, almost 58 per cent of people interviewed in the Herald-DigiPoll survey said they did not want the Government to call an early election despite the Alliance split.

More importantly for the Coalition, the poll found that 64 per cent of Labour voters and 68 per cent of Alliance supporters were against going to the polls early.

The finding is evidence that Alliance supporters believe the party would be punished for its messy internal strife if an election were held now.

It is also a strong message to Labour leaders that supporters worry the party will be punished if it goes to the polls early without a convincing reason.

Labour Party president Mike Williams said he thought the results were "about right". "Most people can't see a good reason for an early election."

His comments come despite Labour's making little attempt in recent weeks to dampen speculation as it tested public reaction to the idea of an early poll.

Political commentators have suggested the Government is looking at possible election dates in August and mid-October.

Labour released its party list last week, saying it was ready to go to the polls "at any time".

Prime Minister Helen Clark has been laying the groundwork for a possible announcement by shifting her focus from running full term to talking about the Budget announcement on May 23. She has stopped publicly defending the role of her deputy, Jim Anderton, in the Alliance split, saying she has no responsibility for that party.

The Herald was unable to contact Helen Clark last night as she headed to Indonesia for talks with President Megawati Sukarnoputri.

Auckland University political scientist Dr Raymond Miller said she would be acutely aware of the danger that an early poll could produce a voter backlash.

But she would also be careful to keep her options open. "She does not want to make a firm commitment to go full term for fear the Coalition does unravel," said Dr Miller.

"She doesn't want to see Labour's support drop drastically because of the Alliance's problems so she is sending a message an early election is always possible."

Dr Miller said the message from Helen Clark to the Alliance was that it needed to hold the Coalition together if it wanted to avoid an early election. He said the junior Coalition partner desperately wanted the Government to go full term.

"They need time to build up their resources and raise their profile. They need as much time as Labour can give them."

Dr Miller said there was also pressure under the MMP system for the Government to prove it could provide stable leadership for a full term.

National leader Bill English agreed there was no reason for an early election.

He said the public blamed Helen Clark and Mr Anderton for instability stemming from the Alliance problems and the two parties would get "hammered" if they went to the polls citing that as a reason.

But Mr Williams pointed to Labour's continued strong poll ratings, despite the Alliance's troubles. In the last One News/Colmar Brunton poll, published on April 21, Labour's party support climbed to 50 per cent, while National's dipped slightly to just 34 per cent. The Alliance, under Laila Harre, won just 0.3 per cent.

Mr Williams believed most people had reacted intelligently to the Alliance split, realising it did not affect the stability of the Coalition, and therefore Labour would not be punished. "They are simply choosing not to vote for the Alliance."

* The Herald-DigiPoll survey of 755 people from April 26 to May 5 has a margin of error of 3.6 per cent.