Storm over weather man's claims

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research is disputing climate change figures from former MetService chief meteorologist Augie Auer.

Dr Auer, a member of the newly formed New Zealand Climate Science Coalition, said this week that 95 per cent of the greenhouse effect was water vapour.

"Of that remaining 5 per cent, only about 3.6 per cent is governed by CO2 and when you break it down even further, studies have shown that the anthropogenic [man-made] contribution to CO2 versus the natural is about 3.2 per cent," Dr Auer said.

But Niwa principal scientist David Wratt said the claim was wrong.

"In fact, about 25 per cent of the current levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere results from human activities," he said.

Dr Auer's claim was a prime example of the value of having a checking process like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

"The IPCC represents a strong, balanced, thorough approach to assessing the science of climate change. The best climate scientists from around the world produce summaries of the latest knowledge. These summaries are then reviewed extensively by hundreds of other scientists."

Dr Wratt is a review editor for a chapter of the forthcoming report of IPCC Working Group 1, which deals with the physical science behind global climate change.

"I have to ensure that the lead authors have carefully considered every comment made by every reviewer. Even though the lead authors are demonstrated experts in their fields, what they write has to withstand heavy scrutiny," he said.

"The IPCC produces a rigorous assessment of the science - an audit, if you like.

The IPCC's fourth assessment of climate change is due out next year. The reports are at present going through the second round of review.

Dr Auer said he thought the global warming issue was a myth.

"You say the climate is changing a little bit, well sure, it always has and it will continue to do so, and there could be other external forcing things, but CO2 coming out of a pop bottle, out of a smokestack of an electric plant, and out of the tailpipe of a car, etcetera, etcetera, that's not it," he said.

"We just have to put the brakes on and have a little rational thinking about this."

The coalition, made up of a group of leading New Zealand climate scientists, aims to refute what it believes are unfounded claims about man-made global warming.

The coalition's secretary, Terry Dunleavy, said this week: "We believe this is a significant development in opening up the debate about the real effects of climate change and the justification for the costs and other measures prescribed in the Kyoto protocols."

- NZPA