Stork busiest in the big cities

As baby boomers die off in ever-increasing numbers and the birth rate drops, half the country's cities and districts will have fewer people by 2026.

On the other side of the equation, Auckland and Queenstown will continue to outstrip the rest of New Zealand in the growth stakes, with Auckland projected to be home to 1.77 million people by 2026.

Statistics New Zealand released figures yesterday showing 35 out of 74 cities and districts will have fewer people by 2026.

A declining birth rate and an increasing death rate over the next 20 years means Southland, Taranaki, West Coast and Gisborne populations will decline by up to 10 per cent.

Districts where the death rate is already outstripping the birth rate are Thames-Coromandel, Horowhenua, Waimate and Waitaki.

But Auckland will gobble up two-thirds of New Zealand's population growth between 2001 and 2026, growing by 556,500 people.

The Auckland region will be home to 37 per cent of New Zealand's population by 2026 compared with 31 per cent in 2001.

Auckland will have the largest numerical increase in population. It is expected to be home to another 560,000 people in 2026, pushing the population from 1.22 million to 1.77 million.

Queenstown-Lakes District will have a higher percentage growth rate than anywhere else, projected to balloon by 79 per cent in the next 25 years to 32,000 people.

Growth of at least 50 per cent is forecast for Rodney District, Selwyn District and Manukau City.

Statistics New Zealand statistician Nick Thomson said natural population increase - births minus deaths - would decrease from 141,000 in 2006 to 86,000 between 2022 and 2026.

There were fewer women of childbearing age and a decreasing average of births per woman.

The biggest percentage decrease in population by 2026 will be Kawerau (down 27 per cent), Ruapehu (down 26 per cent), Wairoa and South Waikato (down 22 per cent) and Rangitikei (down 21 per cent).

Westpac Bank chief economist Brendan O'Donovan said the projections were based on current migration inflow but that could change depending on Government policy.

"If you have a declining population, it may well be you change your migration criteria."

He said where and how people lived in the future could have a big impact on which areas continued to experience population increase.

"If may be that in future you don't have to live in a city where it takes 2.5 hours out of your day to travel to work."

Property prices would be affected by population decline, but that also depended on immigration.

Falling property prices was "the least of our worries", said Auckland Regional Council strategic policy analyst David Lindsey.

The biggest challenge facing New Zealand from population decline would be finding enough highly skilled workers to keep the economy ticking over and providing for an ageing population with a younger, shrinking workforce.

"No one has a crystal ball but who knows, maybe having babies will become fashionable again."