Steve Maharey: Mainstream parties found the new centre

Something very important is happening to the shape of politics. Photo / NZPA

Opinion

• Steve Maharey was Minister of Education in the previous Labour Government.

New Zealand is a strange democracy. Despite all the political upheavals of the past three decades and the shift to MMP, the two main parties are alive and kicking. Not that they have avoided problems. Labour was on its knees in 1990 after the reforms of the 1980s turned sour. National looked ready to split into rural and urban parties around the turn of the century and tried to self-destruct during the 2002 election. In recent years, Labour seemed destined to become just another small party.

Yet, here we are weeks away from the 2017 election with National and Labour accounting for some 80% of the vote between them. One of them will have to find a coalition partner (or two) post the election to form a government, but none of the smaller parties look like they will have much bargaining power.

This is an odd situation because elsewhere in the world, mainstream parties have been struggling to survive in the face of attacks from new political forces or insurgents from within their own ranks. Think Trump, Macron, Corbyn, Wilders, Sanders, Le Pen, Farage, Errejon, Grillo and Sturgeon to name but a few of the people who tried, and succeeded, in transforming the political landscape.

The success of these "outsiders" rests on the failure of mainstream parties to adequately protect voters from the insecurity and loss of identity caused by globalisation. While mainstream parties argued that there was a limit to what they could do in the face of inevitable changes, the outsiders promised simple, direct ways to make things better.
New Zealand has had its share of pretenders to the outsider throne. In this election, it is Gareth Morgan's turn, although, like his predecessors, he is finding it hard to break through. And it is likely to get harder because Labour and, maybe, National are doing a little outsider behaviour themselves.

This was in no way clear at the outset of the campaign. National adopted the soporific campaign slogan "Delivering for New Zealand" and planned to sleep walk to victory while the other parties fought amongst themselves.

As is now agreed, the arrival of Jacinda Ardern changed the script overnight. With Labour tanking in the polls, Ardern took a leaf from the outsider playbook and made no bones about the fact that she aimed to lead an active, interventionist government. Even more, she spoke coherently and with conviction about the policies she wanted government to implement.

The upheaval Ardern's approach caused elicited an immediate response from National. They announced $10 billion for new roads and have promised to attend to the many issues they tinkered with over the last nine years.

By promising to scrap tax cuts and adopt a slower debt track, Labour has been able to promise a little more.

Something very important - more important in the long term than the promises being made - is happening to the shape of politics. The centre ground is shifting. In the middle of the last century, the centre referred to the welfare state. Late in the last century and early this century, the centre meant the market. It takes a long time for mainstream parties to give up the centre they are used to because it is where they think their support is.

Outsiders spotted some time ago that the centre was not going to hold. Too many people were hurting and they wanted someone to act on their behalf.

Now, it seems, the mainstream has got, or is getting, the message. Representing the centre means being an active, interventionist government working within a global economy. It means framing credible policies, communicating them effectively, uniting a party, implementing a programme and being able to respond to unexpected events.

There will be variations on the message. The political right will still seek smaller government, but they are now going to have to explain how that will benefit the many not just the few.

So much attention has been given to the politainment factor of this election (is every leader going to get themselves in trouble!) that the creation of a new centre has not been noticed. But the real story of the election may turn out to be that mainstream parties looked forward not back. If that is true we will all be the better for it.