Green Party co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons will lose her Coromandel seat to National's Sandra Goudie, according to the latest opinion poll.
Ms Fitzsimons won the seat in 1999 by a slim 250 votes, but a Waikato Times survey shows the left vote has split, handing Ms Goudie the lead.
Ms Goudie has34 per cent support, ahead of Labour candidate Max Purnell on 27 per cent and Ms Fitzsimons on 24 per cent.
Eighteen per cent of the 453 voters polled were undecided.
Coromandel was a key electorate in the last election, as a win there ensured the Green Party would be in Parliament irrespective of its party vote result. Labour gave its supporters the go-ahead to back Ms Fitzsimons in 1999.
This election, the Greens are well over the 5 per cent threshold needed to qualify for Parliament (polls put them at 8 or 9 per cent), so Coromandel is not as vital.
Before Ms Fitzsimons' win, Coromandel had been a National seat for decades.
