Champion horseman Tony Herlihy will re-launch his two top-class 4-year-olds at Alexandra Park tonight, but even that isn't enough to make him confident of victory.
Statesman will look to retain his unbeaten record this season, which culminated in him winning the $50,000 Sales Series Pace via the Kaikoura inquiry room last start, while on form last season his stablemate Bettor Dream may be an even better horse.
But while Herlihy is thrilled to have the pair leading his summer charge, he says wins are going to be hard to come by at Alexandra Park in coming weeks.
Herlihy trained and drove four winners last Friday but the intensity is going to be racheted up during December as superstar trainer Mark Purdon rolls into town with a barn full of horses and he is joined by plenty of southern support.
"It is going to be great racing but awfully hard to win at The Park between now and New Year," said Herlihy.
"A lot of the better horses from up here are coming back in the grade racing and when trainers like Mark bring horses up the whole level steps up a notch.
"Which makes it hard to win any race, let alone a strong intermediate grade race like the one my 4-year-olds are in this week."
Intermediate 2200m races at Alexandra Park over summer make for some of the most competitive racing in the country, with almost all contestants capable of breaking 2:42 for the distance, which would win you almost any similar race over the winter.
Herlihy has chosen to partner Statesman in the MPA New Zealand Mobile Pace because he is fitter than Bettor Dream, to be driven by Brent Mangos, but says the former's draw at barrier seven could make life tricky.
"He is a good little horse and on form you would say he could win but in these races you can't have any bad luck and that is always possible from a wide draw. But he might be the better chance of the two of them this week because of the fitness."
While Statesman will be the more favoured tonight, Bettor Dream developed into a serious pacer last season, racing with distinction in the New Zealand Derby against the big boys, Gold Ace and Terror To Love. "But he might need the run this week because he has put on a lot of muscle and has come back a really chunky little monkey."
Herlihy is also looking forward to the return of beautifully bred mare Yankeedoosie in race four.
The sister to Interdominion winner I Can Doosit looks a serious stayer in the making so will be suited by the 2700m tonight.
"She worked well the other day but will obviously improve with the run."
Purdon's team are going to provide some well-supported runners tonight, especially in the likes of Luby Ann (race four), his three trotters in race seven, Paddy Brown in race eight and Dancing Diamonds in race nine.
Paddy Brown was an impressive winner at Addington on Show Day and looks well placed even from a wide draw over the mile as she is a freegoer. Dancing Diamonds loved Alexandra Park on her way to winning $210,000 as a juvenile last season but does meet some tough male three-year-olds in race nine, including the underrated Besotted.
One of the other features of tonight's meeting is the first heat of the Young Guns series for 2-year-old pacers, a series which has changed the way early season juvenile racing is conducted in New Zealand.
TOUGH TIMES
Alexandra Park racing steps up a gear in the next month.
That means winning any race will be hard, especially in the ultra-competitive intermediate grades.
Tony Herlihy, who trained four winners last Friday, brings back Statesman and Bettor Dream tonight.
Mark Purdon launches his huge summer assault.