Some warm autumn days ahead yet, despite chilly mornings - The Front Page

Some warm autumn beach days are predicted for March. Photo / Dean Purcell

It’s set to be a warmer-than-usual autumn, despite some chilly mornings lately.

So, don’t put away your togs for the year just yet.

Niwa meteorologist Chris Brandolino told The Front Page airflow can be credited for those noticeably colder draughts.

“Where is the air coming from? Over the past couple of days, and probably for the next several days, we’re going to see a propensity for air flows to come from the south. That is a cool wind direction.

“So, that is driving not only the cool lean we have experienced the past few days but [what we are] going to experience in about the middle part of the month.

“But, it’s also going to drive the dry conditions this autumn as the days are getting shorter.

“Naturally we’re going to get cooler with time, but certainly early mid-March is closer to summer than it is winter. Technically, it is still summer from an astronomical perspective until I think March 20 or 21.

“We are still expected to have summer-like weather, I would think, especially in March.

“So if you’re a fan of summer, you want summer-like weather, you like going to the beach, you don’t want to give up summer yet. Hang in there. I think as we get to the middle part of the month into the second half of March, quite frankly that is when we’ll find those much warmer temperatures than what we’re experiencing now,” he said.

Niwa’s Season Climate Outlook for March-May 2025 also noted there’ll be unusual dry spells at times – with autumn rainfall totals expected to be “near normal” or “below normal” for the west of the North and South Islands.

“There is dryness across much of the North Island, especially over the western half. Coastal and western parts of the north from Dargaville down to about Helensville in the northern part of the Auckland region down into the Waikato down into the Taranaki region, all are experiencing either extremely dry to drought-like conditions, and that is because of lack of rainfall.

“That is going to continue through about mid-March. So the areas that really need the rain and that are experiencing these very dry conditions, exceptionally dry conditions, unfortunately, that’s probably going to worsen between now and the middle part of the month.”

Brandolino said it’s a tricky business when it comes to weather outlooks.

“When we assemble these long-range outlooks for three months, we’re trying to identify themes. What will the theme be if you go to someone’s house for dinner? It’s a dinner party and the theme is Italian. You don’t know exactly what the meal will be, but you have an idea. It’d probably be some pasta, maybe some pizza. So, that’s what we’re doing. We’re not giving you the menu. We’re giving you these themes,” he said.

Listen to the full episode to hear more about what’s in store weather-wise for the rest of 2025.

The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.

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