Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins conceded the election on election night, but did he make the call too soon? For most of the election night, it seemed National and Act won enough seats to govern alone - but that may not be the case.
National and Act hold 61seats on the preliminary results, giving them enough seats to form a government and the Port Waikato by-election will likely give them another. Accounting for the byelection, the next Parliament is projected to have 121 seats instead of the usual 120 seats. That still allows the next Government to be formed on 61 seats.
However, Te Pāti Māori’s success in the Māori electorates may create an overhang, adding an extra seat to Parliament and increasing the total number of seats to 122. The next Government will then need a minimum of 62 seats.
National and Act’s kryptonite will be the special votes, which make up 20 per cent of the votes this year. Special votes tend to shift two seats to the left, which could leave National and Act with 60 seats, Labour, Greens, and Te Pāti Māori with 54 and New Zealand First with 8.
Winston Peters may once again find himself in kingmaker position.
New Zealand First leader Winston Peters in Russell the day after voters returned his party to Parliament. Photo / Michael Cunningham
Hipkins and Peters ruled each other out pre-election, but that was merely grandstanding. If they wish to go back on their words, they are free to do so. That opens the question, should Hipkins pick up the phone to Peters?
Any arrangement would require the Greens and Te Pāti Māori to agree. A Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori-NZ First coalition would be fascinating to many and enticing to some. In a conversation, someone told me the left doing nothing is better than the right doing anything. That is what I imagine a Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori-NZ First coalition government would be. The value here isn’t in what they would do but rather in what they wouldn’t.
A Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori coalition with NZ First may stop National’s tax cut for the wealthy, bringing back no-cause eviction, foreign property buyers and 90-day trials, thousands of job cuts in the public sector, lifting the retirement age, repealing the Fair Pay Agreements system, removal of free prescriptions and public transport discounts and abolishing of the Māori Health Authority.
They could also stop Act’s abolishing of the Ministry for Women, Ministry for Pacific Peoples, Ministry for Ethnic Communities and the Human Rights Commission, a referendum on the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi, a reduction of sick leave from 10 to five days, freezing of minimum wages for the next three years and abolishing a public holiday.
There is a lot at stake, but Labour working with NZ First to prevent drastic changes in the short term may debilitate the party in the long run. Labour is on shaky ground with voters after a bloodbath at the election, and working with NZ First for three more years to achieve nothing would be the final nail in their coffin.
Working with NZ First, a party with regressive views, may cause Labour to keep bleeding. NZ First candidates made attacks on Māori and transgender people during the election. On the one hand, while working with NZ First, Labour, Greens, and Te Pāti Māori may significantly damage their reputation, they could stall or stop any of NZ First’s anti-Māori or anti-transgender proposals in government. I do not feel confident National and Act would do the same, given their empathy for anti-transgender proponent Posie Parker and unanimity in opposing co-governance.
Labour may choose to go hands-off and allow NZ First to form a government with National and Act and hope Peters creates so much chaos, the instability of the National-Act-NZ First coalition causes them to achieve nothing. It could be Labour’s best-case scenario.
I’m not sure which coalition is better. No matter what shape the coalition takes, the reality is the left lost this election. There are nightmares in both coalitions, but a part of me hopes Peters will let that phone ring.
Shaneel Shavneel Lal (they/them) was instrumental in the bill to ban conversion therapy in New Zealand. They are a law and psychology student, model and influencer.
