While North Islanders are being hit by severe flash flooding and landslides, the approach to issuing weather warnings in advance is being criticised as a far cry from what was seen during Cyclone Vaianu.
Many people were caught out by the sudden torrential rain and were forced to evacuate as streets flooded and landslides damaged homes.
Meanwhile, earlier this month, during the lead-up to ex-tropical cyclone Vaianu’s impending landfall, Kiwis were warned of a “threat to life” days in advance.
Several residents told the Herald they were rattled awake by this morning’s severe weather as early as 3.30am.
A landslide crushed part of a two-storey house in a Wellington suburb about 5am, leaving its blindsided tenants worried they would have to live elsewhere.
“Nothing is in our hands; we cannot control anything,” the resident said.
Down the street, fellow residents were forced to break a window to evacuate their flat at 4am after it was inundated by waist-level water from the hillside above.
A warning expert says the lack of severe or red alerts before the current weather onslaught reflects how difficult it is to predict highly localised events hours or days in advance.
“The challenge with this kind of event is that you can’t put out a red warning because they are so localised and so uncertain,” social scientist and warnings consultant, Dr Sally Potter, told the Herald.
She said in cases like this, people are advised to check for natural warning signs.
“When you don’t have enough time for an official warning, you really need to be able to just do what you can to recognise the warning signs yourself,” she said.
Potter said this can be especially difficult for locals when rain hits in the middle of the night.
Potter said it is difficult for forecasters to know exactly where localised downpours, thunderstorms, and tornadoes will occur before they happen, while larger events can be tracked through satellites and modelling.
She said forecasters might see that something is expected to happen within an area or region, but not exactly where the hardest impacts could be felt.
“They just have to kind of do quite general warnings that thunderstorms or downpours could occur somewhere, but nobody knows [exactly] where,” Potter said.
She said this means that Kiwis can’t get specific warnings for these events hours in advance.
“The science just isn’t there yet,” Potter said.
Earlier this month, Vaianu arrived with the strongest warning language MetService can issue across the North Island.
When the storm swept through, Vaianu delivered more of a slap than a punch and, thankfully, the feared widespread destruction did not occur.
This prompted Wairoa Mayor Craig Little to claim that the declaration of states of emergency was “woke” decision-making.
“We didn’t need a state of emergency. When you make a call like that, it means you are under the pump,“ Little said.
“I think it takes away the importance of a state of emergency,” he said.
Potter said some people can experience “warning fatigue or the cry wolf syndrome” following repeated severe warnings.
She said people needed to continue to think about risk, regardless of whether false alarms have occurred in the past.
“What I think people need to do is really look at those forecasts and think about their personal risk. Think if that was to happen to me, what would be the impacts?”
Potter said that to be prepared for sudden events, people should store items that are important off the floor and in watertight containers.
“Then if you are surprised by a flood, you have a better chance at keeping those items safe,” she said.
She advised people to keep an eye on the forecasts, particularly for words like localised, thunderstorms and downpours.
“If these are in the mix, then they can occur anywhere in the area. They may hit you or someone else across the region, so it’s best to get prepared if you can, just in case,” Potter said.
Potter said in these situations, people can do things like have their grab bag ready, park their car on higher ground, lift rugs off the floor and prepare to keep animals safe.
Potter advised people to look out for small slips that could lead to bigger landslides, fences and walls that are tilting away and new cracks or bulges on the ground or on retaining walls.
“If you see any of these signs, evacuate, and tell neighbours, emergency services, and your local council,” Potter said.
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